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Manifold Creator

Musteval

@musteval

Markets by Musteval

Will Steve Davis be the next Twitter CEO?

$60K22 tradersResolved
0%

Will Isaac King correctly resolve the 'Will Zorn correctly resolve the "Will Isaac King correctly resolve the Whales vs.

$30K11 tradersResolved
99%

Will the "Will Black win in Manifold Plays Chess, Pt. 2?" market resolve YES?

$27K18 tradersResolved
0%

AI bypass coding entirely by EOY 2026?

$22K21 tradersopen
2%

Will "Split Or Steal 2" resolve YES?

$5K9 tradersResolved
100%

Will at least five additional "rationalussy" markets be created in 2023?

$3K17 tradersResolved
99%

Is J. F. Jurchen honorable?

$2K5 tradersResolved
98%

Will the Storybook Brawl servers come back up?

$2K5 tradersResolved
100%

This question resolves to the name of the user with the most-negative profit on the market

$2K5 tradersResolved
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Will Matt Levine release a Money Stuff on 11/18?

$2K13 tradersResolved
2%

Will Zvi Mowshowitz forget to account for the Fourth of July in one of his Covid posts?

$1K7 tradersResolved
1%

Conditional on China invading Taiwan without preemptively attacking U.S. bases and the U.S. NOT intervening militarily, does the Chinese invasion succeed?

$1K34 tradersResolved
74%

Will Storybook Brawl release a patch in the second half of 2023?

$9708 tradersResolved
3%

This question closes with an even probability

$73513 tradersResolved
55%

This market resolves YES when 1 = 0

$5206 tradersResolved
1%

Conditional on China invading Taiwan without preemptively attacking U.S. bases and the U.S. intervening militarily, does the Chinese invasion succeed?

$32011 tradersResolved
27%

In 2050, will the World Health Organization state that vaping is safer than cigarettes?

$3126 tradersopen
—

Will this question close with an even probability?

$24515 tradersResolved
51%

What will be the median bet-weighted answer to this question?

$2084 tradersResolved
—

Conditional on China invading Taiwan and NOT preemptively attacking U.S. bases, does the Chinese invasion succeed?

$1495 tradersResolved
49%

Conditional on China invading Taiwan and NOT preemptively attacking U.S. bases, does the U.S. intervene militarily?

$1009 tradersResolved
61%

Conditional on China invading Taiwan and preemptively attacking U.S. bases, does the Chinese invasion succeed?

$906 tradersResolved
51%

This question resolves to the median response (excluding non-numeric responses)

$594 tradersResolved
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This market resolves with PROB of the total amount bet modulo 100

$82 tradersResolved
52%

What hero will get first place in the final lobby of the Storybook Brawl World Championship in the Bahamas?

$71 tradersResolved
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What hero will get 8th place in the final lobby of the Storybook Brawl World Championship in the Bahamas?

$41 tradersResolved
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