What is the probability for "Conditional on China invading Taiwan and NOT preemptively attacking U.S. bases, does the U.S. intervene militarily?" on Manifold?

Question

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 61% with 9 traders and $100 in volume.

Conditional on China invading Taiwan and NOT preemptively attacking U.S. bases, does the U.S. intervene militarily?

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