What is the probability for "Conditional on China invading Taiwan without preemptively attacking U.S. bases and the U.S. NOT intervening militarily, does the Chinese invasion succeed?" on Manifold?

Question

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 74% with 34 traders and $1K in volume.

Conditional on China invading Taiwan without preemptively attacking U.S. bases and the U.S. NOT intervening militarily, does the Chinese invasion succeed?

Resolution