Manifold Creator
Jonny Spicer
@jonny
Markets by Jonny Spicer
Will a non-Chromium based web browser be the most popular browser by the end of 2025?
$35K359 tradersResolved
1%
Will TSMC be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
$29K81 tradersResolved
0%
Will Tesla be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
$22K56 tradersResolved
100%
Will Apple be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
$19K63 tradersResolved
99%
Will Meta be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
$17K42 tradersResolved
100%
Will Microsoft be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
$13K30 tradersResolved
100%
Who will win the Tata Steel Master 2023 chess tournament?
$13K24 tradersResolved
—
Will Conjecture produce work that they believe constitutes meaningful progress towards alignment by the end of 2023?
$12K161 tradersResolved
13%
Will Sundar Pichai be the CEO of Alphabet at the end of 2023?
$11K38 tradersResolved
99%
Will Nvidia be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
$11K30 tradersResolved
99%
Will Bethesda publicly release The Elder Scrolls VI before 2027?
$10K58 tradersopen
5%
Will Alphabet be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
$9K15 tradersResolved
100%
Will Bethesda publicly release Starfield before July 1st 2023?
$9K12 tradersResolved
0%
Will Amazon be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
$7K17 tradersResolved
100%
Will Manifold Markets add a way for users to sign up and log in on desktop other than Google OAuth by the end of 2023?
$7K22 tradersResolved
1%
Will Mark Zuckerberg be the CEO of Meta at the end of 2023?
$7K19 tradersResolved
99%
Will Tim Cook be the CEO of Apple at the end of 2023?
$7K10 tradersResolved
100%
Will Meta, Alphabet, Amazon or Microsoft invest in Conjecture before 2026?
$7K17 tradersResolved
8%
Will Alibaba be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
$6K12 tradersResolved
0%
Will Tencent be in the top 10 companies in the world by market cap at the end of 2023?
$5K11 tradersResolved
0%
Will Andy Jassy be the CEO of Amazon at the end of 2023?
$5K11 tradersResolved
100%
Will Ma Huateng be the CEO of Tencent at the end of 2023?
$4K5 tradersResolved
100%
Will Ian Nepomniachtchi achieve an official rating of >2800 at any point in 2023?
$4K21 tradersResolved
1%
Will Anish Giri achieve an official rating of >2800 at any point in 2023?
$4K17 tradersResolved
1%
Will Jack Ma be the CEO of Alibaba at the end of 2023?
$3K13 tradersResolved
1%
Will a non-Chromium based web browser have > 25% market share by the end of 2023?
$3K11 tradersResolved
1%
Will Amazon substantially alter or retract its return to office plans by May 1st 2023?
$3K19 tradersResolved
2%
Will Arjun Erigaisi achieve an official rating of >2800 at any point in 2023?
$3K14 tradersResolved
1%
Will Satya Nadella be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2023?
$2K9 tradersResolved
99%
Will Hou Yifan be the highest rated player on the FIDE women's rating list at the end of 2023?
$2K5 tradersResolved
99%
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky make any public statement in 2023 that his current p(doom) is not at its historical maximum?
$2K10 tradersResolved
98%
Will Nodirbek Abdusattorov achieve an official rating of >2800 at any point in 2023?
$2K8 tradersResolved
1%
Will OpenAI announce that they are cooperating with Deepmind, Anthropic, Meta or Google in order to mitigate race dynamics by 2027?
$2K26 tradersopen
25%
Will any space station have artificial gravity before 2031?
$2K35 tradersopen
26%
Will Dommaraju Gukesh achieve an official rating of >2800 at any point in 2023?
$2K8 tradersResolved
1%
Will the bot @hyperkaehler be profitable at the end of 2023?
$2K14 tradersResolved
1%
Will Daniel Zhang be the CEO of Alibaba at the end of 2023?
$2K9 tradersResolved
1%
Will C.C. Wei be the CEO of TSMC at the end of 2023?
$2K5 tradersResolved
99%
Will Jensen Huang be the CEO of Nvidia at the end of 2023?
$1K6 tradersResolved
99%
Will I complete the Cambridge Half Marathon on 5th March 2023 in less than 1 hour and 35 minutes?
$1K15 tradersResolved
78%