What is the probability for "Will Arjun Erigaisi achieve an official rating of 2800 at any point in 2023?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will Arjun Erigaisi achieve an official rating of >2800 at any point in 2023?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 1% with 14 traders and $3K in volume.

Will Arjun Erigaisi achieve an official rating of >2800 at any point in 2023?