Manifold Creator
Soli
@Soli
Markets by Soli
Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?
$806K803 tradersResolved
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Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2025 (as decided by ChatBot Arena)?
$584K199 tradersResolved
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Will Donald Trump die or become seriously ill before the end of his term?
$535K913 tradersopen
19%
Will Sam Altman start a new company before 2025?
$175K390 tradersResolved
3%
Will Elon’s new startup xAI launch a publically accessible AI model (not waitlist) before the end of 2023?
$131K380 tradersResolved
100%
Will OpenAI’s AI Video model Sora be available to the public in 2024?
$124K324 tradersResolved
99%
Will GPT-4 be available to ChatGPT Free Users in 2024?
$97K508 tradersResolved
98%
When will Trump and Elon “break up” / have a serious public falling out?
$84K209 tradersResolved
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Will Google layoff more than 1000+ employees before February 2024?
$73K291 tradersResolved
94%
Will anyone other than OpenAI rank #1 on Chatbot Arena in 2024? (for >1 week)
$60K123 tradersResolved
99%
Will DALL-E 3 consistently generate accurate images from the prompt "blue grass, green sky"?
$55K240 tradersResolved
87%
Will any open-source model rank higher than GPT-4 on ChatBot Arena in 2024? (according to ELO Rating)
$50K121 tradersResolved
99%
Will Anthropic, Google, xAI or Meta release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?
$49K153 tradersResolved
99%
Will Apple’s next iPhone (2024) include an on-device LLM “ChatBot”?
$48K159 tradersResolved
7%
Will bitcoin go below $80k in 2025?
$47K67 tradersResolved
1%
Will GPT-4 be available to ChatGPT Free Users before April 2024?
$38K103 tradersResolved
1%
Who will be part of Lex Fridman's Israel-Palestine Debate(s) in 2024?
$36K61 tradersResolved
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Will Anthropic release a model that thinks before it responds like o1 from OpenAI by EOY 2024?
$33K114 tradersResolved
2%
Will OpenAI fund/start/buy an AI Chip company (semiconductors) in 2024?
$33K106 tradersResolved
4%
Will I regret selling all my bitcoin 6 months from now (on the 22.05.2024)?
$30K73 tradersResolved
97%
Will Chrome, Safari, or Firefox add native support for local LLMs in 2024? (Opera just did)
$30K112 tradersResolved
99%
What will be true of LLAMA 3? (LMSYS Rank, Context Window, Launch Date, Parameters) [1000Ṁ]
$30K69 tradersResolved
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Will Google stock $GOOG be higher than 300$ at the end of the year?
$28K48 tradersResolved
99%
When will ChatGPT become proactive (instead of reactive)?
$26K33 tradersResolved
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What will be true of OpenAI's next major LLM release (GPT-4.5 or GPT-5)?
$25K154 tradersResolved
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Will Anthropic, OpenAI, Deep-mind or Meta publish an app mainly for AI Agents by end of March 2026?
$25K123 tradersResolved
39%
Will OpenAI offer a cheaper paid tier (<20$) or reduce the price of ChatGPT Plus by more than 5$ in 2024?
$23K72 tradersResolved
6%
Will OpenAI allow users to create bots with custom instruction messages through the ChatGPT app (before 2024)?
$23K31 tradersResolved
100%
Will anyone be able to get OpenAI’s new model o1 to leak its system message by EOY 2024?
$23K78 tradersResolved
96%
Will anyone manage to get OpenAI Sora to generate explicitly pornographic videos in the first 3 months post-launch?
$23K160 tradersResolved
13%
Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (resolves based on ELO rating)
$22K60 tradersResolved
3%
Will OpenAI patch the prompt in the description which leaks the System Message in less than 30 days from now?
$22K76 tradersResolved
1%
Will Sam Altman and Greg Bockmam start a new company together before 2025?
$22K66 tradersResolved
5%
Will Bitcoin trade >= 30000$ on the 1st of Jan at 00:00 2024 CEST?
$22K28 tradersResolved
100%
Will OpenAI make a big product-related announcement in December 2023?
$22K71 tradersResolved
3%
Will Anthropic release a first-party image generation model in 2026?
$22K83 tradersopen
37%
When will OpenAI release their own browser?
$21K44 tradersResolved
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Who will have the best LLM at the end of 2024 (as decided by ChatBot Arena Ranks)?
$20K89 tradersResolved
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Will sign-in with OpenAI be announced before 2026?
$19K52 tradersResolved
6%
Will Karpathy publicly express support for Sam and/or Greg on Twitter?
$18K127 tradersResolved
45%