What is the probability for "Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (resolves based on ELO rating)" on Manifold?

Question

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 3% with 60 traders and $22K in volume.

Will any open-source model rank in the top 3 on Chatbot Arena at any point in 2024? (resolves based on ELO rating)

Resolution