What is the probability for "Will anyone other than OpenAI rank #1 on Chatbot Arena in 2024? (for 1 week)" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will anyone other than OpenAI rank #1 on Chatbot Arena in 2024? (for >1 week)" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 99% with 123 traders and $60K in volume.

Will anyone other than OpenAI rank #1 on Chatbot Arena in 2024? (for >1 week)