Manifold Creator
Jim Hays
@JimHays
Markets by Jim Hays
Will the resolution to “the market” be controversial?
$56K22 tradersResolved
0%
In Inside Out 2, will Riley and this new character kiss?
$46K83 tradersResolved
1%
Will GPT-4 be released to the general public before June?
$43K37 tradersResolved
100%
What will Monday’s Wordle answer be?
$23K56 tradersResolved
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Will the top shareholder in this market have more shares than the top shareholder in the linked market? (at close)
$18K10 tradersResolved
100%
Which flag will Minnesota’s State Emblem Redesign Commission select?
$14K23 tradersResolved
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Silksong price?
$12K33 tradersResolved
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Minnows vs. Whales: In WvM, will traders hold at least 10000x as many NO shares as there are traders holding YES shares?
$12K43 tradersResolved
96%
Will anyone be elected to political office while promising to outsource all their decision-making to an AI before 2025?
$8K58 tradersResolved
2%
Will anyone submit a 100% speedrun of Nintendo's TotK with a time under 25 hours to speedrun.com before the end of 2023?
$6K22 tradersResolved
1%
In TotK, will I have to regularly open the same chest twice?
$6K13 tradersResolved
0%
Will Silksong be a Switch 2 launch title (or be available within a month of launch)?
$6K33 tradersResolved
0%
Will anyone submit an Any% speedrun of The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom with a time under 1 hour to speedrun.com before the end of 2023?
$6K15 tradersResolved
99%
Will The One Ring be worth a million dollars?
$5K25 tradersResolved
98%
Will/the/title/of/this/market/cause/some/kind/of/display/issue/in/at/least/five/different/contexts/throughout/Manifold?
$5K7 tradersResolved
100%
Will anyone submit an Any% speedrun of Nintendo's TotK with a time under 40 min. to speedrun.com before the end of 2023?
$5K18 tradersResolved
1%
Will @IsaacKing resolve this market?
$5K18 tradersResolved
1%
Will anyone submit a 100% speedrun of The Legend of Zelda: Tears of the Kingdom with a time under 10 hours to speedrun.com before the end of 2023?
$4K17 tradersResolved
2%
Will proof of an optimal packing of 17 or fewer squares in a square be shown for any currently unproved packing before 2024?
$3K22 tradersResolved
95%
Will anyone submit a 100% speedrun of Nintendo's TotK with a time under 50 hours to speedrun.com before the end of 2023?
$3K13 tradersResolved
99%
Will The One Ring be worth at least two million dollars?
$3K16 tradersResolved
98%
Will this chrysalis become a butterfly?
$3K16 tradersResolved
99%
When the ones digit of the date next matches the ones digit of the Dow Jones close, will that digit be even?
$2K2 tradersResolved
0%
When the ones digit of the date next matches the ones digit of the Dow Jones close, will that digit be even?
$2K3 tradersResolved
100%
Will “Tiger King” be on the 2024 US presidential ballot in at least one state?
$2K12 tradersResolved
8%
Will Louisiana’s requirement to display the Ten Commandments in public school classrooms take effect as planned?
$2K21 tradersResolved
26%
How many different players will have achieved a NES Tetris crash by end of January?
$2K6 tradersResolved
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Will “the market” show at least 10K trades?
$2K17 tradersResolved
73%
What will be true about AI and MIT Mystery Hunt 2026?
$1K19 tradersResolved
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Will the creator of the WheezyWaiter YouTube channel continue their challenge to “quit their smartphone” through the end of 2023?
$1K3 tradersResolved
98%
Will anyone submit an Any% speedrun of Nintendo's TotK with a time under 40 min. to speedrun.com before July 2024?
$8853 tradersResolved
99%
Will Scott Alexander state that Vitor has paid him for winning their AI image bet this year?
$77215 tradersResolved
16%
Will this market help me in my QA Engineer job search?
$73514 tradersResolved
7%
Will contestant 952 win the island on Beast Games?
$6934 tradersResolved
98%
Will the number of traders holding positions in this market at close be a complex number?
$6113 tradersResolved
100%
Will at least one major glitch be discovered and useful in speedrunning Tears of the Kingdom within one month of release?
$40011 tradersResolved
87%
Will at least 10 different meta-markets be posted in the comments referencing the linked market?
$2297 tradersResolved
17%
Will Closed Captioning be required on most U.S. broadcast TV ads in or before 2035?
$1502 tradersopen
22%
Silksong Livestream Prop Bets
$451 tradersResolved
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