Manifold Creator

zzq

@zzq

Markets by zzq

Are Republicans or Democrats better for the economy? [Annual GDP growth by presidential party]

$75K31 tradersopen

Will Donald Trump ever be president again?

$62K153 tradersResolved
99%

Will Yahya Sinwar be alive at the end of 2024?

$24K71 tradersResolved
1%

Will Biden still be president at the end of October 2022? (95% chance of resolving to market)

$19K25 tradersResolved
5%

If the left/right culture war comes for AI in 2023, will the right be the pro-AI side?

$10K111 tradersResolved
58%

Will my flight (originally BZ441 on August 8, BUD to TLV, now BZ117) be canceled, because of war with Iran or otherwise?

$9K36 tradersResolved
7%

Sam Bankman-Fried in prison by 2030

$7K28 tradersopen
98%

Was a western-aligned party (such as the US or Ukraine) responsible for the Nord Stream attack (IF there is a consensus at close)

$6K77 tradersResolved
92%

Will Ismail Haniyeh be alive at the end of 2024?

$6K22 tradersResolved
1%

Will Elon Musk's investment in Twitter beat the NASDAQ?

$4K26 tradersopen
15%

Will Victoria 3 be released by November 1st, 2022?

$2K5 tradersResolved
99%

Will the Israeli Knesset vote to dissolve (to go to new elections) by the end of 2023?

$2K9 tradersResolved
1%

Will Yair Lapid become prime minister of Israel under the rotation agreement as scheduled?

$1K9 tradersResolved
1%

When will LLMs be better at Paradox grand strategy games than the in-game AI for NPCs?

$8056 tradersopen

Does Putin have cancer?

$75620 tradersopen
22%

Will the Supreme Court leaker's identity be known by 2030?

$69824 tradersopen
32%

How many seats will Likud win in Israel's next elections?

$1224 tradersResolved
27%

Will Israel's judicial selection committee be reformed during the current Knesset term?

$1106 tradersopen
22%

Will Israel's process of judicial review be reformed during the current Knesset term?

$703 tradersopen
15%

Will Israel pass a legislative override reform during the current Knesset term?

$654 tradersopen
16%

Will Israel reform the status of legal advisers during the current Knesset term?

$552 tradersopen
18%