Manifold Creator
Vincent Luczkow
@vluzko
Markets by Vincent Luczkow
GPT-4 #5: Will GPT-4 be a dense model?
$279K169 tradersResolved
1%
Will it be possible for AI to generate reasonably good video ads by (start of) 2024?
$118K425 tradersResolved
4%
Will AI for Diplomacy be strongly superhuman by 2024?
$60K66 tradersResolved
0%
Will more than 20 organizations publicly train large language models by 2024?
$58K111 tradersResolved
2%
By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)
$55K127 tradersopen
81%
Will *any* remaining Millenium Prize problem be solved entirely or mostly by humans?
$39K133 tradersopen
44%
Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2024?
$34K202 tradersResolved
6%
Will AI beat the best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2024?
$33K73 tradersResolved
6%
Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2023?
$33K197 tradersResolved
3%
Putnam Top 100 #2: Will any AI score in the top 100 Putnam scorers by start of 2026?
$31K33 tradersResolved
56%
Will there be realistic AI generated video from natural language descriptions by the start of 2025?
$30K101 tradersResolved
4%
By 2029 will any AI be able to watch a movie and accurately tell you what is going on? (Gary Marcus benchmark #1)
$27K93 tradersopen
87%
In 2029, will any AI be able to construct "reasonably" bug-free code of >= 10k LOC from a natural language specification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #4)
$27K116 tradersopen
91%
Will there be entry-level AI coders by 2026?
$26K146 tradersResolved
11%
Will AI for Diplomacy be mildly superhuman by 2024?
$21K48 tradersResolved
1%
Will any language model trained without large number arithmetic be able to generalize to large number arithmetic by 2026?
$21K98 tradersResolved
49%
In 2029, will any AI be able to take an arbitrary proof in the mathematical literature and translate it into a form suitable for symbolic verification? (Gary Marcus benchmark #5)
$19K105 tradersopen
77%
Will there be realistic AI generated video with dialogue by 2024?
$19K103 tradersResolved
5%
Will The Winds of Winter be released before 2025?
$17K67 tradersResolved
1%
By 2029, will an AI escape containment?
$17K174 tradersopen
58%
Was the Bing LLM trained with RLHF?
$17K40 tradersopen
73%
In 2029, will any AI be able to work as a competent cook in an arbitrary kitchen? (Gary Marcus benchmark #3)
$15K118 tradersopen
50%
Will any AI solve >=50 IMO problems by the start of 2024?
$12K81 tradersResolved
7%
Will OpenAI publish a paper accompanying GPT-4?
$12K29 tradersResolved
91%
Will there be realistic AI generated dialogue (with sound) by 2024?
$11K29 tradersResolved
95%
Will the Winds of Winter be released in 2023?
$11K34 tradersResolved
2%
Will there be realistic AI generated short films by the end of 2024?
$9K26 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be realistic AI generated video with full sound by 2024?
$9K36 tradersResolved
5%
Short-Term AI #2: By the end of June 2023, will SOTA on MMLU overall be >=85%?
$9K13 tradersResolved
99%
When will a single agent beat Minecraft (defeat the Ender dragon)?
$9K31 tradersopen
—
AI for AI 1: By when will there be an AI that can do "intern-level" ML engineering?
$9K32 tradersopen
—
Will any AI be able to explain formal language proofs to >=50% of IMO problems by the start of 2025?
$8K30 tradersResolved
19%
AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?
$8K46 tradersopen
44%
Will ACT-1 be publicly used to accomplish a clearly and intentionally harmful task by 2024?
$8K32 tradersResolved
1%
Will a version of GPT-4 finetuned for code be released this year?
$7K43 tradersResolved
2%
Will natural language based proof assistants be in common use by 2026?
$7K52 tradersResolved
4%
Will software-side AI scaling appear to be suddenly discontinuous before 2025?
$7K34 tradersResolved
24%
Will Conjecture produce work that I believe constitutes meaningful progress towards alignment by the end of 2023?
$7K61 tradersResolved
3%
GPT-4 #2: Will GPT-4 be at least partially trained with RL?
$6K33 tradersResolved
96%
Will it cost less than 100k USD to train and run a language model that outperforms GPT-3 175B on all benchmarks by the end 2024?
$6K54 tradersResolved
85%