Manifold Creator
Victor Li
@vicli
Markets by Victor Li
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
$3.3M3,358 tradersResolved
1%
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
$67K295 tradersResolved
2%
Will my net worth be at least Ṁ100,000 by the end of 2023?
$62K124 tradersResolved
99%
Will Elon Musk step down from being Tesla CEO by the end of 2025?
$43K119 tradersResolved
1%
By 2025, will Google be in a winning position in the "AI war" against Microsoft?
$41K225 tradersResolved
7%
Will GPT-5 reach a 1000 rating on Codeforces?
$32K52 tradersResolved
99%
Will GPT-5 be released before 2025?
$28K87 tradersResolved
1%
Will the OpenAI superalignment team believe that their goal has been achieved after 4 years?
$16K54 tradersResolved
5%
Will any country implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040?
$12K50 tradersopen
56%
Will interest in DeepMind overtake OpenAI at any point before 2025?
$10K45 tradersResolved
1%
Will an AI get a perfect SAT score before 2025?
$9K134 tradersResolved
6%
Will SNL make a sketch involving any big AI lab before the end of 2025?
$6K23 tradersResolved
3%
Will Gemini achieve a higher score on the SAT compared to GPT-4?
$6K38 tradersResolved
70%
Will GPT-5 get the Monty Fall problem correct?
$5K25 tradersclosed
94%
Will Manifold allow you to change your account email address before July 2024?
$4K16 tradersResolved
3%
Will the US implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2030?
$4K31 tradersopen
30%
Will the unemployment rate among CS degree-holders rise to over 30% by 2030?
$3K59 tradersopen
10%
Will Mira Murati step down as OpenAI CEO before 2030?
$3K18 tradersResolved
99%
Will I have a girlfriend by September 1, 2024?
$2K35 tradersResolved
39%
Will the US implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040?
$2K37 tradersopen
30%
Will Manifold users be able to delete comments by the end of 2023?
$2K22 tradersResolved
4%
Will I think there is a >50% probability that aliens have visited Earth by the end of 2023?
$2K47 tradersResolved
5%
Will Isomorphic Labs release anything significant before 2025?
$2K6 tradersResolved
99%
Will I be accepted to ESPR or PAIR in 2024?
$2K17 tradersResolved
52%
Will I be accepted to UC Berkeley?
$1K17 tradersResolved
10%
Will Paul Christiano consider ELK unsolvable by the end of 2024?
$1K19 tradersResolved
10%
Will Isomorphic Labs release anything significant before 2024?
$84011 tradersResolved
4%
Will we be able to edit our own genomes by 2050?
$75623 tradersopen
64%
How many "minnows" will be in Isaac's market at closing time?
$74019 tradersResolved
44%
Will I decide to become an AI alignment researcher after attending the Atlas Fellowship program?
$71219 tradersResolved
54%
Will money still exist in a post-AGI, post-scarcity society?
$70529 tradersopen
72%
Will any EU country implement an UBI (universal basic income) before 2040?
$59121 tradersopen
47%
Will my typing speed reach 100 wpm by August 2023?
$40220 tradersResolved
28%
Should we be allowed to edit our own genomes? (permanent)
$35515 tradersopen
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Resolves to whichever side's second-highest shareholder has more shares at market close
$3288 tradersResolved
44%
Resolves to whichever side's highest shareholder has less shares
$27212 tradersResolved
38%
Will I qualify for the USAMO by September 2023?
$452 tradersResolved
58%
Will the invention of AGI lead humanity to post-scarcity? (permanent)
$122 tradersopen
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