What is the probability for "Will I think there is a 50% probability that aliens have visited Earth by the end of 2023?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will I think there is a >50% probability that aliens have visited Earth by the end of 2023?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 5% with 47 traders and $2K in volume.

Will I think there is a >50% probability that aliens have visited Earth by the end of 2023?