Manifold Creator
quantizor
@quantizor
Markets by quantizor
Will Rabbit R1 sell 100,000 units by May 2024?
$16K64 tradersResolved
99%
Will SpaceX Starship IFT-3 carry a payload?
$15K41 tradersResolved
8%
xAI Grok will beat OpenAI's flagship model on HumanEval benchmarks by the end of 2024.
$14K101 tradersResolved
6%
Will Republicans lose control of the House in 2024?
$11K41 tradersResolved
2%
Will IFT-3 Starship flight hardware remain intact?
$7K20 tradersResolved
1%
Will Joe Biden be nominated by Democratic Primary for re-election in 2024?
$7K29 tradersResolved
1%
Will $tsla close above $250 per share at any time in the month of February 2024?
$6K12 tradersResolved
0%
FSD v12 will be available to all customers that have purchased/subscribed to the US FSD program by the end of 2023.
$6K39 tradersResolved
3%
Will a US Presidential candidate be seen wearing an Apple Vision Pro by end of 2024?
$5K21 tradersResolved
3%
Will SpaceX deliver the next set of human astronauts to the lunar surface?
$3K25 tradersclosed
39%
Will any Waymo driverless vehicle be involved in a serious accident in 2024?
$3K23 tradersclosed
10%
Will Starship IFT-3 occur before the end of 2023?
$3K16 tradersResolved
4%
Will we permanently lose contact with Voyager I in 2024?
$2K23 tradersResolved
5%
Will a Mamba-based LLM of GPT 3.5 quality or greater be open sourced in 2024?
$2K18 tradersclosed
73%
Will OpenAI release a new flavor of model in 2024?
$2K10 tradersResolved
98%
Will an AI-first operating system be released in 2024?
$1K31 tradersclosed
49%
Is a room temperature superconducting crystal within the DeepMind-predicted dataset?
$1K12 tradersopen
8%
Will Cruise shut down before Jan 1 2024?
$1K10 tradersResolved
2%
The 25k Tesla model will be officially revealed...
$9306 tradersResolved
—
Will Tesla launch a new auto insurance market in the US before April 2024?
$8995 tradersResolved
2%
Will SpaceX IFT-3 launch before Tesla FSD Beta 12.x goes wide?
$7001 tradersResolved
98%
Will Relativity Space conduct a successful static fire of Terran R in 2024?
$6586 tradersclosed
2%
Will Tesla Insurance roll out to a new US market in December 2023?
$6409 tradersResolved
3%
Will Apple launch an LLM product in 2024?
$58417 tradersclosed
87%
Will Tesla preview its Robotaxi interface in 2024?
$5587 tradersResolved
8%
Will the upcoming Model Y refresh (Juniper) incorporate 48v architecture?
$3294 tradersclosed
9%
xAI "Grok" will incorporate image generation capabilities with minimal T&S restrictions. Pepe will be freed.
$3046 tradersclosed
58%
Will the first EVs using sodium-ion battery technology ship in 2024?
$2887 tradersResolved
78%
When will Rivian break even?
$1252 tradersopen
—
Who will be the first Twitter/𝕏 user with >= 1 billion followers?
$9710 tradersopen
—
Will the HTVN 142 clinical trial to vaccinate against HIV be successful?
$873 tradersclosed
81%
Will a US-based follistatin clinical trial for humans begin in 2024?
$382 tradersResolved
24%
Will Bassnectar successfully host a large event in 2024?
$101 tradersclosed
59%