Manifold Creator
O
@o
Markets by O
Will a Manifold trader reach 500K profit in 2023?
$29K13 tradersResolved
99%
Will a LLM-enabled bot play on Manifold in 2023?
$12K10 tradersResolved
99%
Will an AI model outperform 95% of Manifold users on accuracy before 2026?
$9K77 tradersResolved
13%
Will Twitter be an open distributed system before 2026?
$7K18 tradersclosed
1%
Will the total crypto market cap reach >3 trillion before 2024?
$7K21 tradersResolved
1%
Will someone pay their rent using Mana before 2026?
$6K40 tradersclosed
3%
Will a whistleblower protection scheme be implemented in 2023 for members of EA organisations?
$5K34 tradersResolved
3%
Will Manifold use a collaborative resolution algorithm before 2025?
$5K23 tradersResolved
3%
Will Manifold Dream be significantly improved before 2024?
$4K11 tradersResolved
96%
Will Manifold officially use Matrix as chat platform before 2024?
$3K20 tradersResolved
3%
Will Manifold reward the classification of markets into groups by end of 2023?
$3K30 tradersResolved
2%
Will Facebook have a data leak affecting more than 100M users during 2023 and 2024?
$3K27 tradersclosed
12%
Will Manifold introduce a machine learning-based recommender system before 2024?
$3K20 tradersResolved
99%
Will Wildtype Salmon have a cultured-fish product available in a store or restaurant in 2023?
$3K11 tradersResolved
8%
Will Cult Food Science stock price reach 0.2 USD during 2023?
$2K12 tradersResolved
95%
Will the Cosmos ecosystem market cap reach 300B USDe before 2025?
$2K12 tradersResolved
90%
Will Manifold use the Mastodon social network by end of 2023?
$2K20 tradersResolved
8%
Will there be a post on the EA Forum with >1000 karma in 2023?
$2K22 tradersResolved
3%
Will Manifold implement effective spam control/filtering in 2022?
$1K8 tradersResolved
5%
Will a Manifold crypto fork be created in 2023?
$1K12 tradersResolved
6%
Will the Mastodon social network report >3 million "last 6 months active users" in 2023?
$1K22 tradersResolved
84%
Will Manifold organize a hackathon before 2024?
$1K11 tradersResolved
97%
Will a malaria vaccine be deployed to >1M humans in 2023-2024?
$94910 tradersclosed
94%
Will the Matrix network report >130 million visible users in 2023?
$94512 tradersResolved
51%
Will Manifold have the ability to filter out groups by end of 2023?
$9418 tradersResolved
98%
Will the book Foundations of Prediction Markets be published in 2023?
$78810 tradersResolved
4%
Will Manifold allow folding comments before 2023?
$70812 tradersResolved
92%
Will Discord have a data leak affecting >1M users before end of 2024?
$67812 tradersclosed
17%
Will the total crypto market cap reach >10 trillion USDe before 2030?
$67117 tradersopen
49%
Manifold will adopt OpenID Connect as authentication system before 2025?
$59912 tradersResolved
7%
Will autonomous weapons be used to kill >1000 humans before 2030 in an offensive strike?
$52313 tradersopen
70%
Will Manifold provide a versioned OpenAPI document for their API before February 2023?
$3869 tradersResolved
10%
Will the Destiny.gg group have above 3000 traders at the end of 2022?
$3848 tradersResolved
92%
By 2024, will I believe that most 'impact projects' should issue an hypercert?
$3518 tradersResolved
46%
Number of Manifold employees at September 1st 2023?
$3057 tradersResolved
7%
Which cellular agriculture company will be the first to reach a >1B valuation?
$3002 tradersResolved
—
Will the Mastodon social network report >1.8 million "last 6 months active users" in 2022?
$2787 tradersResolved
83%
What will be memestiny's all time number of traders at end of 2022?
$2525 tradersResolved
27%
Will Cosmos' Interchain Security v1 will be released before October 1st 2022?
$2015 tradersResolved
4%
Will one company of Cult Food Science's portfolio have a yearly revenue of >100M before 2025?
$1903 tradersclosed
28%