Manifold Creator
dp
@dp
Markets by dp
Will Science's Top Breakthrough of the Year in 2023 be AI-related?
$37K215 tradersResolved
1%
Will we have better-than-human-aggregate forecasting AIs by the end of 2024?
$9K36 tradersResolved
2%
Will OpenAI's Superalignment team publish any paper towards its goal in 2024?
$6K30 tradersResolved
3%
What IMO Shortlist topic (ACGN) will be the easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?
$4K20 tradersopen
—
Will "Will AI outcompete best humans in competitive programming before the end of 2023?" resolve consistently with "AlphaCode AI is as good as the median human competitor in competitive programming" in its description?
$3K31 tradersResolved
80%
Will I find a good example of a prediction market chain-of-thought answer by the end of April?
$2K40 tradersResolved
35%
Will I reach 1000 Twitter followers by 1 Jan 2023?
$1K11 tradersResolved
99%
Will anyone be removed from "OpenAI o1 Contributions" by 2027, if the page still exists?
$4406 tradersopen
49%
Was there ever a memo of OpenAI leadership discussing selling to the Russian government to fund AI development?
$3906 tradersopen
27%
In 2027, will AI be able to generate a good "X-ing the technical interview" aphyr.com post?
$3423 tradersopen
48%
Will "Will 'jailbreaks' in LLMs be solved in principle by the end of 2024" resolve YES AND turn out wrong in 2026?
$3423 tradersopen
5%
Will any author of "Clever Hans or Neural Theory of Mind?" say that LLMs have some robust Theory-of-Mind (ToM) in 2026?
$2767 tradersopen
44%
Was firewood over 20% of US GDP in the 1830s?
$1528 tradersResolved
27%
What IMO Shortlist topic (ACN) will be the second easiest for the first AI solving multiple shortlist problems?
$1288 tradersopen
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Will the OpenAI Charter be scrapped or amended by 2027?
$964 tradersopen
75%
On the 538 World Cup prediction page, how many win probability plots will look like flags of countries?
$533 tradersResolved
9%
Will DeepMind publish a Nature paper on seismology by 2029?
$476 tradersopen
64%