Manifold Creator
~deleted~
@_deleted_
Markets by ~deleted~
Will @firstuserhere walk 100,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends?
$2.2M528 tradersResolved
100%
Will OpenAI hint at [read description] or claim to have AGI by 2025 end?
$1.1M1,815 tradersResolved
2%
Will we find out in 2023 about a nation state using LLMs for generating propaganda messages?
$731K1,360 tradersResolved
0%
Will @firstuserhere walk 50,000 steps in a day, before 2023 ends? (6000 Mana subsidy)
$632K105 tradersResolved
100%
Will @firstuserhere end his 335 day+ streak in 2023?
$587K188 tradersResolved
3%
Is Levi HMYS?
$476K77 tradersResolved
6%
Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy)
$417K214 tradersResolved
22%
Will an AI get at least silver on International Olympiad in Informatics (IOI) by end of 2025?
$399K86 tradersResolved
99%
Instant deepfakes of anyone (doing anything) before the end of 2024?
$391K395 tradersResolved
1%
Will @firstuserhere coauthor a NeurIPS or ICML conference publication before end of 2024? (10,000 Mana subsidy)
$379K102 tradersResolved
3%
Will @firstuserhere lose >4.5 kgs of weight before the end of the year? ($1.5k mana subsidy)
$372K56 tradersResolved
100%
Will at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
$251K277 tradersopen
66%
(personal) Will @firstuserhere read 50+ books by the end of 2023?
$228K201 tradersResolved
0%
Will @firstuserhere author a bestselling book by the end of 2027? (10000 Mana subsidy)
$212K87 tradersopen
4%
Will Apple sell 500,000 units of Vision Pro in 2024?
$201K489 tradersResolved
3%
Master's League : November Edition - Who will demote?
$188K42 tradersResolved
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University Challenge 2023-24 (Season 53) predictions
$158K16 tradersResolved
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Will Sam Altman return to being the CEO of OpenAI before the end of November, 2023?
$151K294 tradersResolved
99%
Master's league: December edition - Who will finish bottom 10?
$147K32 tradersResolved
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Master's league: December edition - Who will demote?
$145K33 tradersResolved
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Will reddit rebrand to Rationalussy before 23 Feb, 2024?
$145K48 tradersResolved
0%
Will Messi join Inter Miami in 2023?
$136K22 tradersResolved
100%
Will any AI model generate image of correct QWERTY keyboard consistently, to a prompt, by the end of 2024?
$135K217 tradersResolved
100%
Which movies will @firstuserhere watch in 2024?
$133K29 tradersResolved
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Will Amazon lay off 9k or more people in Q1, 2023, worldwide?
$127K57 tradersResolved
98%
Who will win the UEFA Champions League 2023-24?
$121K166 tradersResolved
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Will OpenAI release GPT-5 before the US elections (2024)?
$117K204 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be a Wikipedia page on @firstuserhere by the end of 2026? ($1k Mana subsidy)
$114K72 tradersopen
2%
Master's league: December edition - Who will finish top 10?
$109K26 tradersResolved
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First leg only : Manchester City vs Real Madrid - will Man City beat Real Madrid at 2022-2023 UEFA UCL?
$107K10 tradersResolved
0%
Will Manifold reach 1200 DAU (7d average) sometime in May 2023?
$107K34 tradersResolved
0%
Will Vladimir Putin be alive on December 21st, 2024?
$102K178 tradersResolved
99%
Will @firstuserhere coauthor a publication in AIstats, AAAI, ICLR or JMLR before end of 2024? ($11,000M subsidy)
$93K56 tradersResolved
12%
Neural Nets will generate coherent 20-min films by the end of 2025 (less strict criteria market)
$91K220 tradersResolved
3%
Will any AI by OpenAI be able to create images of English alphabet characters rotated by 90 degrees?
$84K223 tradersResolved
9%
Will Manifold dip below 870 DAU (7d average) sometime in July 2023?
$81K32 tradersResolved
100%
Will the Apple Vision Pro go on sale before the end of January, 2024?
$79K140 tradersResolved
1%
OpenAI DevDay predictions
$78K104 tradersResolved
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Who will be guests on the Lex Fridman podcast in 2024?
$77K83 tradersResolved
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Which topics will be discussed on the Lex Fridman podcast episode with Sam Altman?
$77K131 tradersResolved
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