What is the probability for "Will @firstuserhere lose 9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy)" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy)" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 22% with 214 traders and $417K in volume.

Will @firstuserhere lose >9 kgs (20 Lbs) of weight before the end of the year? (6k mana subsidy)