Manifold Creator
Areal
@Waterfalls
Markets by Areal
Will Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei flee (travel) to Russia by any of the following dates?
$13K40 tradersResolved
—
any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard at https://lmarena.ai/ reaches an Arena Score of at least 1520.0 (≥1520)
$11K27 tradersResolved
3%
Will NO foreign leader claim by 31 Dec 2028 that Putin used impersonators, decoys, body doubles to represent Russia?
$1K5 tradersopen
89%
Will someone send me 150 MANA before 20 Jan 2026?
$6505 tradersResolved
99%
Will SOUTHCOM, SECWAR, or another U.S. government entity announce a new “drug-boat” strike between Dec 12-24 2025 UTC?
$4166 tradersResolved
96%