Manifold Creator
Alyssa
@Tulip
Markets by Alyssa
Will there be at least 10,000 worldwide cases of human infection by HPAI H5N1 before 2025?
$15K25 tradersResolved
3%
Will fanfiction.net be accessible at the end of 2024?
$13K21 tradersResolved
98%
What year will Alecto the Ninth be released?
$8K12 tradersopen
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When will the second season of Frieren: Beyond Journey's End begin airing?
$8K13 tradersResolved
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In Oldschool Runescape, will Sailing be released in 2024?
$8K15 tradersResolved
1%
Will Google Chrome's mean desktop market share in the second half of 2024 be at least 2% lower than in the first half?
$6K18 tradersResolved
1%
When will Tsukihime -The other side of red garden- be released?
$5K11 tradersopen
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Will at least five purely-AI-written books make it onto the New York Times fiction bestseller list before 2031?
$4K32 tradersopen
45%
In Oldschool Runescape, will any quest other than Maiden Voyage be released simultaneously with Sailing?
$4K16 tradersResolved
96%
Will there be news in 2024 of someone finding a walrus at their door?
$4K13 tradersResolved
2%
Will there be an AI-music-generation web UI with at least 5000 stars on GitHub by the end of 2024?
$3K15 tradersResolved
3%
Will new Manifold markets get automatically-generated AI art banners again in the first half of 2024?
$3K22 tradersResolved
97%
If Manifold makes N/Aing markets harder in the pivot, will they add dedicated conditional markets within two months?
$3K12 tradersResolved
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What year will Earthblade be released?
$3K6 tradersopen
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What will be true of Touhou 20?
$3K11 tradersopen
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Will the Fairphone 5 be sold in the United States before the end of 2024?
$2K19 tradersResolved
10%
When will Ufotable's Witch on the Holy Night movie be released?
$2K7 tradersopen
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How many more times will numeric markets be released on Manifold before they stick around?
$2K14 tradersResolved
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Will Vampire The Masquerade: Bloodlines 2 be released in 2024?
$2K9 tradersResolved
1%
How soon after the release of Fate/stay night Remastered will there be a working fan-patch to re-add the sex scenes?
$2K8 tradersResolved
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How many new quests will be added to Oldschool Runescape in 2024?
$2K4 tradersResolved
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Will tumblr re-tighten its restrictions on porn in 2024?
$2K25 tradersResolved
10%
Will an English release of Fate/hollow ataraxia be announced before 2026?
$2K4 tradersResolved
99%
Will Alecto the Ninth be released in 2024?
$2K8 tradersResolved
1%
In Oldschool Runescape, will a new league start before the end of 2024?
$1K12 tradersResolved
99%
Will the first two players to reach 200m Sailing experience in Oldschool Runescape do so within a week of each other?
$1K16 tradersResolved
95%
Which of 1password or Bitwarden will have user secrets exposed in a security breach first?
$1K32 tradersopen
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Will Windows's desktop market share in 2026 be at least 5% lower than in 2024?
$89020 tradersopen
76%
Will it be possible to log into Oldschool Runescape without a Jagex Account as of the end of 2024?
$7808 tradersResolved
97%
What is the next password manager the Wirecutter will start recommending?
$76022 tradersopen
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Will Alecto the Ninth be released in 2024?
$7277 tradersResolved
1%
Will Tsukihime -The other side of red garden- be available in English on its initial release?
$6494 tradersopen
20%
When will Tsukihime -A piece of blue glass moon- be released for Windows?
$5939 tradersopen
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Will Ciconia: When They Cry Phase 2 be released by the end of 2025?
$5488 tradersResolved
5%
In Oldschool Runescape, will the world map keep the black box in the Kharidian Desert through the end of 2025?
$4717 tradersResolved
53%
Will it be possible to reorder tabs in iOS Firefox by the end of 2024?
$43411 tradersResolved
67%
Will a new chapter of Fairy Dance of Death be released before the end of 2024?
$4065 tradersResolved
5%
In Oldschool Runescape, will it be possible to fight a monster higher-level than Verzik Vitur by the end of 2025?
$3436 tradersResolved
81%
Will a sixth edition of Dungeons & Dragons be released by the end of 2030?
$30816 tradersopen
70%
How many active users will Manifold have at the end of June 2024?
$2559 tradersResolved
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