Manifold Creator
Thomas M
@Thomas42
Markets by Thomas M
Will the ocean surface temperature (SST) be lower than the previous year on any day in 2024?
$25K31 tradersResolved
98%
Will the New York Times sue OpenAI for copyright infringement in 2023?
$15K61 tradersResolved
99%
Google's antitrust ruling appealed to Supreme Court by end of September?
$10K16 tradersResolved
7%
Will there be a story with >1500 points on the hacker news front page in the next week?
$10K37 tradersResolved
99%
Will there be a large (>10 dead) attack on Russian soil in August?
$10K71 tradersResolved
4%
Will Sarah Wagenknecht announce the formation of a new party before the end of the year?
$9K16 tradersResolved
100%
Will the Google Gemini App have as many installs as the ChatGPT app on Android by end of 2024?
$9K40 tradersResolved
2%
Will we see a practical implementation of "Thermodynamic Linear Algebra" in the next year?
$7K42 tradersResolved
93%
Will Israel announce victory over Hamas in 2024?
$7K57 tradersResolved
4%
Will a hardware AI device by Jonny Ive and OpenAI be released before 2025?
$6K20 tradersResolved
2%
Will LLM progress stall in 2024?
$6K23 tradersResolved
3%
What will the valuation of OpenAI at IPO be?
$6K19 tradersopen
—
Will there be a large (>10 dead) attack on Russian soil in 2024?
$5K33 tradersResolved
97%
What kind of device will the Johnny Ive OpenAI collaboration first release? [Suggest options]
$4K40 tradersopen
—
How will "GPT 5 Exceeds Expectations" resolve?
$4K29 tradersResolved
2%
Google vs USA 2024 antitrust ruling appealed to Supreme Court by end of October?
$4K9 tradersResolved
5%
Will someone run a marathon wearing an Apple Vision Pro?
$4K28 tradersResolved
3%
Will there be a large (>10 dead) attack on Russian soil in February?
$4K41 tradersResolved
4%
Will the City of Praxis project announce their host country in 2024?
$4K17 tradersResolved
4%
Will the Google Gemini App have as many reviews as the ChatGPT app on the Apple app store by end of 2024?
$3K24 tradersResolved
5%
Will the ocean surface temperature (SST) record set in August 2023 be exceeded in the next year?
$3K38 tradersResolved
91%
Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change in 2024?
$2K20 tradersResolved
6%
Trump publicly derides Powell within 24 hours of Sept 17 Fed rate decision?
$2K45 tradersResolved
3%
Will Saudi Arabia join BRICS in January 2024?
$2K9 tradersResolved
98%
Will the Google Gemini App have 10M installs by the end of the year?
$2K18 tradersResolved
92%
In 2028, will geoengineering be at least as big a political issue as abortion?
$2K34 tradersopen
11%
How will the lawsuit accusing Anna’s Archive of hacking WorldCat end?
$2K15 tradersResolved
—
Will the source of the fire aboard the Fremantle Highway be confirmed to be due to an EV battery?
$2K9 tradersResolved
2%
Will any of the remaining Clay Millenium problems be solved with substantial help from an AI before 2030?
$2K26 tradersopen
51%
When will the new pope be elected?
$2K15 tradersResolved
—
Will it be revealed in 2023 that Lex Friedman interviewed Putin but was unable to release the interview for some reason?
$1K21 tradersResolved
3%
10000+ passenger eVTOLs sold by one company by 2027?
$1K7 tradersopen
15%
Will Waymo temporarily cease operations in San Francisco as a consequence of the cyclist collision?
$1K19 tradersResolved
4%
Will Manifold implement a detailed transaction overview that allows one to understand balance changes in September?
$1K8 tradersResolved
1%
Public coup attempt against a South American government?
$1K14 tradersResolved
2%
Attempted coup in Russia while Putin is in US?
$1K16 tradersResolved
3%
Which of the ICML 2023 Outstanding Paper award winners will have the most citations at the end of 2025?
$1K8 tradersResolved
—
Will there be a terrorist attack motivated by climate change before 2030?
$85626 tradersopen
82%
Will US installed grid battery capacity exceed 31.1 GW by the end of 2024?
$74412 tradersResolved
45%
Will there be a story with >1500 points on the Hacker News front page in February?
$71222 tradersResolved
87%