What is the probability for "Will there be a large (10 dead) attack on Russian soil in 2024?" on Manifold?

Question

What is the probability for "Will there be a large (>10 dead) attack on Russian soil in 2024?" on Manifold?

Accepted Answer

The current market probability is 97% with 33 traders and $5K in volume.

Will there be a large (>10 dead) attack on Russian soil in 2024?