Manifold Creator
Steven
@StevenK
Markets by Steven
Will 2023 be the warmest year on record?
$190K259 tradersResolved
100%
Who will win Euro 2024?
$189K160 tradersResolved
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Will 2023 be warmer than 2022?
$99K60 tradersResolved
100%
Will any month in 2023 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?
$98K70 tradersResolved
100%
Will 2023 be in the top 3 warmest years?
$89K83 tradersResolved
100%
Will 2024 be the warmest year on record? (fussy multi-dataset criteria)
$18K27 tradersResolved
99%
Will any month in 2024 have the highest temperature anomaly on record?
$8K32 tradersResolved
1%
By 2100, will at least 1 billion people remain alive?
$7K51 tradersopen
82%
Will any goalkeeper score a goal in the rest of the 2022 World Cup?
$7K13 tradersResolved
1%
In 2023, will any paper be published on an AI that plays Diplomacy better than Cicero, on at least as big a sample?
$3K49 tradersResolved
8%
World Optimism Stock (Permanent)
$2K11 tradersopen
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Will all four teams in the 2022 FIFA World Cup semifinals be from different continents?
$2K11 tradersResolved
4%
Will someone not currently listed on ElectionBettingOdds be elected US President in 2024?
$1K11 tradersResolved
2%
Will 2025 be the warmest year on record? (fussy multi-dataset criteria)
$1K12 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be a robust fourth party movement in America that impacts the 2024 Presidential race?
$93313 tradersResolved
3%
Will the outcome of the World Cup 2022 final be determined by a referee mistake?
$8185 tradersResolved
2%
Short AI Timelines Stock (Permanent)
$79111 tradersopen
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How good will this quantum branch be compared to other quantum branches with the same history up to 2023-01-27?
$226 tradersopen
52%