What is the probability for "In 2023, will any paper be published on an AI that plays Diplomacy better than Cicero, on at least as big a sample?" on Manifold?

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The current market probability is 8% with 49 traders and $3K in volume.

In 2023, will any paper be published on an AI that plays Diplomacy better than Cicero, on at least as big a sample?

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