Manifold Creator

Noit

@Noit

Markets by Noit

On what dates will Keir Starmer still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom?

$205K172 tradersopen

Which party will win the Gorton and Denton by-election?

$50K117 tradersResolved

Which two candidates will Conservative Party MPs present to party members for the final leadership vote?

$47K34 tradersResolved

When will Artemis II launch?

$44K47 tradersResolved

What will be true of the UK.gov October Budget?

$30K71 tradersResolved

Will Keir Starmer lead the Labour party into the next General Election?

$27K86 tradersopen
8%

What will be true of the 2025 UK.gov Autumn Budget?

$24K43 tradersResolved

If Zack Polanski becomes leader of the Green Party (UK), how many Labour MPs will defect to the Greens?

$23K32 tradersResolved

Who will be the next Deputy Leader of the UK Labour Party?

$23K31 tradersResolved

Will Rupert Lowe be a Reform UK MP on 1st September 2025?

$20K9 tradersResolved
1%

On what dates will Rachel Reeves still be Chancellor of the Exchequer?

$19K44 tradersopen

Who will be the next Conservative Party Leader?

$18K27 tradersopen

What will be true of Pokémon Champions?

$18K11 tradersopen

Will “Things Can Only Get Better” re-enter the UK Top 10 Singles or Album charts before July ends?

$16K23 tradersResolved
1%

Which party will win the Runcorn and Helsby by-election?

$15K20 tradersResolved

How many Conservative Leadership TV debates will take place during this leadership contest?

$14K19 tradersResolved

How many seats will Reform UK win at the next general election?

$14K24 tradersopen

Will Sue Gray be Downing Street Chief of Staff on 1st March 2025?

$13K10 tradersResolved
1%

Will X.com be accessible in the UK on 31st March?

$12K33 tradersResolved
98%

Will any UK political party consistently poll at 30% or higher in 2025?

$12K19 tradersResolved
99%

Which UK Constituencies will see By-Elections in the 2024 (59th) Parliament?

$11K17 tradersopen

Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2025?

$11K14 tradersResolved
2%

When will Microsoft release Windows 12?

$10K29 tradersopen

Will Parliament return before the end of planned Summer Recess 2025?

$10K11 tradersResolved
1%

Will any UK cabinet member leave cabinet this quarter?

$10K37 tradersopen

Will August 22nd be a UK Bank Holiday?

$10K11 tradersResolved
1%

Will X.com be accessible in the UK on 30th June?

$10K22 tradersopen
97%

Will any Conservative MPs follow Robert Jenrick in defecting to Reform UK?

$10K19 tradersResolved
99%

Which Labour MP(s) will mount a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer? [Add Answers]

$10K31 tradersopen

Will a Switch version of Metroid Prime 2: Echoes release before March?

$9K11 tradersResolved
1%

Who will win Taskmaster UK Series 18?

$9K3 tradersResolved

Will Trump’s “Greenland tariff” on UK goods come into effect before 2nd February?

$9K36 tradersResolved

What day will Pokémon Champions be released?

$9K7 tradersResolved

Will the United States of America abduct another head of state in 2026?

$9K42 tradersopen
12%

Will the next permanent Conservative Party leader be in post by the start of party conference?

$9K15 tradersResolved
3%

Who will be the next Deputy Prime Minister of the UK? (Add answers!)

$8K5 tradersResolved

What will be true of the first main series Generation 10 Pokémon game(s)?

$8K30 tradersopen

Will the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill become law?

$8K22 tradersopen
16%

How many seats will Labour win at the next general election?

$7K10 tradersopen

When will the next UK General Election take place?

$7K28 tradersopen