Manifold Creator
MP
@MP
Markets by MP
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
$1.9M2,172 tradersopen
42%
Will Elon Musk and Mark Zuckerberg officialy announce they're having a fight by January 2024?
$530K483 tradersResolved
0%
Will the United States go back to normally issue J-1 student visas for latinos by 2026?
$325K121 tradersResolved
92%
Will Biden be impeached by 2025?
$165K160 tradersResolved
1%
Will Twitter suffer a major outage during 2022?
$152K643 tradersResolved
98%
Will humanity achieve immortality by July 2023?
$107K345 tradersResolved
0%
Will Guyana and Venezuela have a military conflict by the end of 2024? [Ṁ1,000 subsidy]
$96K290 tradersResolved
3%
Why was Sam Altman fired? (Resolves to One by year end)
$92K274 tradersResolved
—
Will Adobe close their acquisition of Figma by end of 2023?
$85K103 tradersResolved
0%
Will I get banned for using my newly created $100 Claude Max subscription on ClawdBot by February 15th?
$77K121 tradersResolved
3%
Will there be a functional Tesla bot in Mars by 2034?
$74K77 tradersopen
28%
Which of these models have an ELO Rating in the LMARENA (formerly known as LMSYS) by the end of January 2025?
$73K16 tradersResolved
—
Conditional in the fight between Musk and Zuckerberg happening, will Zuckerberg win?
$72K355 tradersResolved
13%
Will Gavin Baker's forecast that it'll be abjectly humiliating for everyone who is a Tesla FSD skeptic hold?
$69K59 tradersResolved
—
Will subreddits return by Monday?
$69K76 tradersResolved
0%
Will Microsoft complete the Activision Blizzard acquisition no longer than Dec 31st 2023?
$66K109 tradersResolved
100%
Will evidence emerge that Manifold played ANY role in the Time's 2023 POTY?
$66K58 tradersResolved
0%
Will Twitter be put behind a paywall by Jul 2023?
$62K172 tradersResolved
1%
On the Monday before the election, what probability of victory Manifold will think Joe Biden has?
$61K209 tradersResolved
—
Will president Trump mint the coin at any point during his administration?
$56K82 tradersopen
7%
What is Daniel Ricciardo outcome for 2024?
$51K25 tradersResolved
—
Will Twitter remove the new rate limits by the end of August 2023?
$51K224 tradersResolved
1%
Will Tesla have a ChatGPT moment in self-driving cars by 2024 year-end?
$41K177 tradersResolved
5%
Will the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing?
$41K99 tradersResolved
2%
Will Tesla report advertising spending for any of the fiscal years 2022 or 2023?
$37K70 tradersResolved
1%
Will more than 100,000 voters decide the 2024 election?
$28K106 tradersResolved
99%
What is going to be the best Magnificent 7 stock of 2024?
$26K60 tradersResolved
—
Will Walmart buy Tiktok by the end of 2024?
$25K30 tradersResolved
1%
Will Venezuela have free elections in 2024?
$22K82 tradersResolved
6%
Will OpenAI and Anthropic announce they're merging into one in 2023?
$22K76 tradersResolved
1%
Will a major crypto founder be murdered before Dec 31st 2023?
$21K60 tradersResolved
1%
Will Trump acceptance speech at the RNC present a change of tone?
$21K85 tradersResolved
—
Will Tesla report automotive gross profit margins lower than 19.5% in any fiscal year by 2028?
$21K49 tradersResolved
93%
If Biden falls ill into an hospital bed, would he nonetheless win the 2024 election?
$20K29 tradersResolved
55%
Will Elon Musk testify to the U.S. Congress in 2023?
$20K83 tradersResolved
1%
Will a self-identified Peronist win the 2023 Argentina presidential election?
$19K74 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Federal Reserve cut rates by May 2025?
$19K49 tradersResolved
99%
Will Twitter prohibit Substack links by May 2023?
$18K91 tradersResolved
14%
Will Alaska Airlines acquire Hawaiian Airlines by December 2025?
$17K30 tradersResolved
99%
Will Musk win Tech Won't Save Us' worst person in tech competition?
$17K67 tradersResolved
1%