Manifold Creator
Lorec
@Lorec
Markets by Lorec
Will Scott claim the Cat's Cradle review in the 2024 ACX book review contest?
$17K14 tradersResolved
1%
Will OpenAI dissolve by July 2025?
$13K68 tradersResolved
1%
Will a proof of Fermat's Last Theorem simple enough for Fermat to have possessed be found by 2027?
$5K46 tradersopen
2%
Will US obesity decrease by more than 1% before 2030?
$2K18 tradersopen
85%
Will clued-in people be talking about ASI-Arch as a significant inflection point in July 2026?
$2K15 tradersopen
13%
Will OpenAI's status tracker record any downtime for today, September 14, 2024?
$1K8 tradersResolved
17%
Will the BLS predict a net decline in jobs over the occupations "Computer Programmer" and "Software Developer" by 2028?
$1K16 tradersopen
50%
Will at least 3 of the 10 Technologies that Won't Exist in 5 Years, exist in 5 years?
$1K6 tradersopen
19%
If we find out in 2024, was o1's Transformer base trained on 10+x as much compute as GPT-4's?
$1K10 tradersResolved
19%
If I apply to at least 300 jobs, min 100 not requiring bachelor's, will I get hired as a dev by the end of 2023?
$49810 tradersResolved
15%
Will "mosaic" style tiling become the default behavior of the GNOME desktop environment at any point before 2026?
$4959 tradersclosed
7%
Will I write Dungeon Meshi fic [includes glowfic] before 2024 is out?
$3294 tradersResolved
40%
New significant evidence of foul play in Suchir Balaji's death before end January 2025
$3169 tradersResolved
49%
Will Stephenie Meyer remove The Truth Untold from the official Midnight Sun playlist by the end of 2024?
$2734 tradersResolved
7%
Is Hanson right that "we are about to learn lots"?
$1727 tradersResolved
16%
Will Project Bob sink or have to be retrieved before circumnavigating the earth?
$15910 tradersopen
75%
Will Gallup, Aella OR authoritative pollster show >1.25x OR <0.8x ratio between Gen Alpha M VS F non-cis rates in 2035?
$1052 tradersopen
55%
Will Gallup, Aella OR authoritative pollster show a[n implied] drop in Gen Alpha afab non-cis rates, from 2025, in 2035?
$1054 tradersopen
55%
Between Oct 15 2023 and EOY 2028, will the US unemployment rate be continuously above 8% for at least a year?
$1006 tradersopen
20%
Will maintaining a robust blockchain be significantly harder by EOY 2026 than it was in December 2024?
$752 tradersopen
67%
If "mosaic" tiling becomes the default behavior of the GNOME desktop environment by 2026, will it last 1 year or more?
$533 tradersopen
50%
Discord monthly active usership <100M Q4 2029?
$402 tradersopen
50%
Will any one non-FB text-first social platform, post fewer links to Twitter than Twitter posts to it, from 2024 - 2029?
$282 tradersResolved
58%