Manifold Creator
Calibrated Ghosts
@CalibratedGhosts
Markets by Calibrated Ghosts
Who will win the Scott Alexander 2026 Book Review Contest?
$16K17 tradersopen
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Will Bitcoin close above 100000 USD on March 31 2026?
$12K23 tradersResolved
1%
Will US average gas price exceed $4/gallon in March 2026?
$12K129 tradersResolved
100%
Will Bitcoin be above $70,000 on February 28, 2026?
$10K81 tradersResolved
1%
Will Bitcoin close above $80,000 on April 30, 2026?
$8K35 tradersResolved
3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?
$7K17 tradersResolved
1%
Will any AI model score above 90% on the ARC-AGI-2 benchmark before April 2026?
$7K67 tradersResolved
3%
Will the US and Iran reach a formal ceasefire agreement by April 30, 2026?
$6K56 tradersResolved
50%
Will DeepSeek release V4 in April 2026?
$6K36 tradersResolved
93%
Will the US national average gas price exceed $5 per gallon at any point in April 2026?
$6K28 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Strait of Hormuz fully reopen to unrestricted commercial shipping by April 30, 2026?
$5K29 tradersResolved
1%
Will the DHS partial shutdown end by April 15, 2026?
$5K22 tradersResolved
1%
Will BTC-USD close below $90,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?
$4K9 tradersResolved
99%
Will DeepSeek release V4 in March 2026?
$3K36 tradersResolved
1%
Will Apple announce Gemini-powered Siri features at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)?
$3K22 tradersResolved
99%
Will OpenAI publicly release the model codenamed 'Spud' (as GPT-5.5, GPT-6, or any other name) by May 31, 2026?
$3K17 tradersResolved
99%
Will Apple announce Vision Pro 2 (or any new Vision Pro hardware) at WWDC 2026 (June 8-12)?
$3K14 tradersopen
1%
Will the US enter a recession in 2026?
$3K26 tradersopen
12%
Will any country other than Norway win the most gold medals at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
$2K20 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Strait of Hormuz remain closed for more than 7 consecutive days in March 2026?
$2K28 tradersResolved
98%
Will Artemis II crew successfully complete lunar flyby and return to Earth?
$2K26 tradersResolved
99%
Will Anthropic win its lawsuit against the Pentagon supply-chain designation by June 2026?
$2K22 tradersopen
16%
Will NVDA close above $250 on Friday, June 5, 2026?
$2K18 tradersResolved
1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 before January 1, 2027?
$2K19 tradersopen
2%
Will SPY close below $700 on Friday, June 5, 2026?
$2K9 tradersResolved
1%
Will the US lift its naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?
$2K20 tradersResolved
1%
Will Google announce Gemini 3.2 or Gemini 3.5 at I/O 2026?
$2K26 tradersResolved
99%
Will Anthropic release Claude Sonnet 5 in March 2026?
$2K13 tradersResolved
1%
Will QQQ close above $725 on Friday, June 5, 2026?
$2K16 tradersResolved
3%
Will ETH-USD close above $3,000 on Friday, June 5, 2026?
$2K9 tradersResolved
1%
Will Bitcoin trade above $90,000 between now and June 1, 2026?
$2K2 tradersResolved
1%
Will US ground troops physically enter Iranian territory by May 1, 2026?
$2K31 tradersResolved
64%
Will the US-Iran ceasefire (set to expire April 21, 2026) be extended or replaced by another formal pause before then?
$2K20 tradersResolved
97%
Will the partial US government shutdown (Feb 2026) last more than 72 hours?
$2K18 tradersResolved
97%
Will Bitcoin close above $80,000 on any day between April 16 and May 31, 2026?
$2K25 tradersResolved
99%
Will Nvidia close above $225 on May 21, 2026 after earnings?
$2K28 tradersResolved
6%
Will Brent crude futures close above $120 on Friday, June 5, 2026?
$2K11 tradersResolved
2%
Will NVDA close below $200 on Friday, June 5, 2026?
$2K20 tradersResolved
6%
Will Claude Mythos be publicly available (not just early access) by April 30, 2026?
$2K17 tradersResolved
4%
Will there be a major doping disqualification at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
$2K39 tradersResolved
34%