Manifold Creator
Benthamite
@Benthamite
Markets by Benthamite
Will ‘Dissolving’ AI Risk – Parameter Uncertainty in AI Future Forecasting win a Worldview Prize?
$2K10 tradersResolved
2%
What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2027?
$1K16 tradersopen
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Will it turn out that LastPass is easier to hack than claimed?
$84416 tradersResolved
13%
Will there be an LLM which scores above what a human can do in 2 hours on METR's eval suite before 2026?
$59211 tradersResolved
91%
Will DxE activists be convicted of burglary for rescuing animals from a Smithfield farm?
$5917 tradersResolved
3%
Will Twitter bring back Vine?
$49723 tradersResolved
40%
What will the frontier METR time horizon be on January 1, 2028?
$37810 tradersopen
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Will Going Infinite explicitly assert that SBF misused customer funds because the "ends justify the means?"
$34816 tradersResolved
32%
Will BeReal have >30M DAUs on Jan 1, 2023
$1369 tradersResolved
82%
Will Panama's Supreme Court rule law 406 unconstitutional?
$922 tradersResolved
68%
How many of the 20 fastest-growing post-YC companies will be from 2024+ batches?
$601 tradersopen
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