Manifold Creator

Aryeh Zax

@zax

Markets by Aryeh Zax

Will Matt Gaetz be Donald Trump's first Attorney General?

$178K397 tradersResolved
0%

Will Pete Hegseth be Trump's first Defense Secretary?

$95K130 tradersResolved
100%

Will the United Healthcare CEO shooter be caught by June 2025?

$64K96 tradersResolved
99%

Are these two supposed pictures of the United Healthcare CEO assassin actually different people?

$57K196 tradersResolved
1%

How many Supreme Court justices will vote that Trump's birthright citizenship executive order is unconstitutional?

$52K171 tradersopen

Will California pass a mid-cycle redistricting referendum in 2025?

$28K128 tradersResolved
99%

Will Matt Gaetz take the House oath of office on January 3rd, 2025?

$24K43 tradersResolved
1%

Will this market get at least 100 traders?

$22K100 tradersResolved
99%

Will Kamala Harris announce she's running for governor of California before July 1, 2025?

$21K64 tradersResolved
1%

Was SBF behind the FTX hack?

$20K125 tradersResolved
4%

Will Trump be impeached for a third (total) time during his second term?

$19K68 tradersopen
68%

Will Shuko be banned in Modern in 2024?

$19K14 tradersResolved
1%

Will Elon Musk appear on The Daily Show in 2025?

$16K22 tradersResolved
1%

How many games will the Yankees win in the 2024 World Series?

$15K25 tradersResolved

Is the Destiny / Nick Fuentes sex tape real?

$15K46 tradersResolved
5%

Which of California's November 2024 ballot propositions will pass?

$15K30 tradersResolved

This market will resolve YES once there is a combined perfect game in MLB.

$15K9 tradersopen
99%

Will Andrew Cuomo run in a special election to replace Eric Adams?

$14K28 tradersResolved
2%

How many points will Ding Liren get during the classical portion of the 2024 World Chess Championship?

$14K19 tradersResolved

Will the Wikipedia article on Charlie Kirk's death be titled "Assassination of Charlie Kirk" on or before October 1st?

$13K15 tradersResolved
99%

How many Speaker votes will there be at the beginning of the 119th Congress?

$11K16 tradersResolved

If Pete Hegseth is nominated for Secretary of Defense, will John Fetterman vote to confirm him?

$11K49 tradersResolved
10%

Which 2026 California ballot measures will pass?

$10K6 tradersopen

Will this market get at least 30 unique traders?

$10K31 tradersResolved
99%

Is the NYT article about the IDF targeting children legit, as judged by TraceWoodgrains?

$10K35 tradersResolved
96%

Will Joe Biden pardon Henry Cuellar?

$10K14 tradersResolved
1%

Will the makeup of the US Supreme Court change before January 20th, 2025 at 12pm ET?

$10K12 tradersResolved
1%

Will Zohran be Abundance-pilled in his first year as mayor?

$9K20 tradersopen
50%

Will Biden be impeached before July 2025?

$9K12 tradersResolved
1%

Will Trump having serious health troubles during his second term be revealed before 2031?

$9K88 tradersopen
78%

In two weeks, will I believe the "fork in the road" letter was offering people to be fired with 8 months' severance?

$9K16 tradersResolved
98%

Nick Adams (Alpha Male) confirmed as ambassador to Malaysia this year?

$9K14 tradersResolved
2%

Will I qualify for the Pro Tour at SCG Con Portland?

$9K8 tradersResolved
1%

If Harris wins, will Biden resign?

$8K62 tradersResolved
10%

Will Lauren Chen (@TheLaurenChen) tweet again before 2024-11-01?

$8K5 tradersResolved
1%

Will there be another Money Stuff newsletter in 2024?

$8K14 tradersResolved
2%

Will Fair Neoform be banned in Modern before 2026?

$8K5 tradersResolved
2%

Is this Twitter threat purportedly from CBZ Management legit?

$7K3 tradersResolved
74%

Will Sylvan Primordial be unbanned in Commander before 2026?

$7K5 tradersResolved
2%

Will Trump suggest repealing the 22nd Amendment (term limits) before inauguration?

$6K37 tradersResolved
2%