Manifold Creator
yk
@yk
Markets by yk
Will I keep my streak till the end of October? (50 days at the creation of the market)
$9K14 tradersResolved
100%
Who will Xi engage in bilateral talks with at APEC 2023 in San Francisco?
$8K7 tradersResolved
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Will Italy extend the Belt and Road initiative with China at March 2024?
$8K91 tradersResolved
3%
Will stability.ai be still independent at the end of 2024?
$6K17 tradersResolved
95%
Will OpenAI make GPT3.5 or 4 model weights open before 2025?
$6K21 tradersResolved
3%
Will there be any organization other than OpenAI that can build a LLM comparable to GPT-4 by the end of 2024?
$5K22 tradersResolved
99%
Will there be a coup in another country in 2023?
$4K54 tradersResolved
51%
Will China allow import of Japanese seafood in 2024?
$4K19 tradersResolved
6%
This market resolves to the side with more traders holding positions
$3K29 tradersResolved
82%
Will China officially confirm the submarine accident in 2023?
$2K16 tradersResolved
2%
Will China allow import of Japanese seafood in 2023?
$2K9 tradersResolved
1%
Will I keep my current streak till 2024?
$2K8 tradersResolved
99%
When will a new state join United Nations?
$2K12 tradersopen
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How many countries will break diplomatic ties with Israel?
$1K14 tradersResolved
—
Will Japan release Fukushima water before Sep. 15?
$1K21 tradersResolved
92%
Which country will make the next successful moon landing?
$1K10 tradersResolved
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Will end-to-end neural networks such as LLMs can beat the best human player in chess by 2028?
$1K15 tradersopen
66%
When will Bank of Japan end negative interest rate? (2023)
$1K4 tradersResolved
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How many people will be prosecuted in relation to Binance before 2024?
$1K14 tradersResolved
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Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2035?
$1K13 tradersopen
23%
Chinese real estate crisis involves another company or stop here?
$98410 tradersclosed
21%
Will any country that has once institutionalized same-sex marriage ban it again before 2030?
$94232 tradersopen
38%
Will CZ(Binance) plead guilty in this November?
$8106 tradersResolved
97%
Will OpenAI undergo a down round before the year 2025?
$7287 tradersclosed
2%
Which country, other than Sweden, will be the next to join NATO?
$55116 tradersopen
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Is TODAYS ANSWER for Sep 6 is YES?
$5434 tradersResolved
97%
When will nuclear fusion reactor be commercialized?
$52610 tradersopen
—
Will any other LLM library become more popular than LangChain by the end of 2024?
$45910 tradersclosed
10%
Will any chip maker other than NVIDIA, Intel, and AMD create accelerators for Deep Learning and be profitable by 2030?
$3719 tradersopen
90%
Will Cancer Be Ranked 4th or Lower Among the Leading Causes of Death in the US by 2050?
$29610 tradersopen
41%
Will any country that has once decriminalized or legalized marijuana revert it again before 2030?
$26810 tradersopen
37%
Will CZ be the CEO of a company again before 2026?
$823 tradersclosed
24%
When will we have another pandemic killing more people than COVID-19?
$811 tradersopen
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Will Western Digital and Kioxia complete merger before 2027?
$724 tradersopen
23%
Will Philippine exit China’s road and belt initiative before 2025?
$596 tradersclosed
69%
Do you feel ChatGPT is getting dumber and dumber?
$024 tradersResolved
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At what temperature do you sleep best?
$018 tradersResolved
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