Manifold Creator
Excessive gambler
@wod
Markets by Excessive gambler
Will a movie be made about the missing Titanic explorer?
$37K101 tradersResolved
99%
When will the actors strike end?
$31K59 tradersResolved
—
Who will win Manifold Plays Poker?
$25K10 tradersResolved
—
Will this market get more unique traders than my previous market?
$17K16 tradersResolved
100%
Will the 2024 Olympics take place in Paris, as planned?
$13K15 tradersResolved
99%
Are any insects sentient?
$9K77 tradersopen
67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be at least $60,000 in 2040 (assuming humanity survives)?
$5K12 tradersopen
83%
Has at least one alien been to Earth?
$4K35 tradersopen
22%
When will GPT-7 be released?
$4K42 tradersopen
—
Will GothamChess become a grandmaster by 2080?
$3K38 tradersopen
20%
Will the number of unique traders XOR the probability be above 20 at market close?
$3K13 tradersResolved
18%
Is Max Tegmark's mathematical universe hypothesis correct?
$3K36 tradersopen
20%
By August 1st, will I find a better way to resolve long-term markets that are hard to verify?
$3K30 tradersResolved
25%
Are we currently in an AI economic bubble?
$2K32 tradersopen
34%
Will Russell crow in 2023?
$2K19 tradersResolved
14%
When will the 10th drop fall in the pitch drop experiment?
$2K18 tradersopen
—
Will Joe biden (bite in) to something on camera by the end of the year?
$1K16 tradersResolved
5%
Will Neil deGrasse Tyson become vegan before 2030?
$71714 tradersopen
20%
Will Harrison ford in 2023?
$70416 tradersResolved
7%
Trolley Problem - Fat Man Variation
$68221 tradersclosed
76%
Does some form of libertarian free will exist?
$43411 tradersopen
13%
Will the largest YES position be greater than the largest NO position at close?
$34813 tradersResolved
41%
If Eliezer Yudkowsky wins the Nobel Peace Prize, what will it be for?
$34114 tradersopen
—
Will a video essay on the 'number of traders by June 25th' market drop in 2023?
$3025 tradersResolved
8%
How many months until the first human commits suicide due to fears from AI?
$1085 tradersopen
5%
Will superhot rock geothermal energy be used by 2040?
$975 tradersopen
81%
Will the largest NO position be greater than the largest YES position at close?
$7110 tradersResolved
54%