Manifold Creator
William Lane
@wglane
Markets by William Lane
Who blew up the Nord Stream 2 pipeline?
$23K141 tradersopen
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Who will medal in the men’s 1500m final at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
$14K26 tradersResolved
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Will Karen Bass be recalled as mayor of Los Angeles before 2026?
$10K16 tradersResolved
1%
Will there be a new marathon world record at the Chicago Marathon in 2023?
$9K31 tradersResolved
100%
For which of the following distances in athletics will the men’s outdoor track world record fall in 2024?
$8K7 tradersResolved
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Will the Republican Party nominate a candidate of East or South Asian descent before the Democratic Party does?
$8K19 tradersResolved
1%
Who will medal in the men's 5000m at the 2024 Paris Olympics
$7K14 tradersResolved
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Will either of the men's 1500m or mile run world records be broken in 2025?
$6K12 tradersResolved
3%
Who will succeed Catherine Stefani as San Francisco Board of Supervisors representative for District 2?
$6K6 tradersResolved
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Will the Eric Adams indictment be about corruption?
$5K7 tradersResolved
97%
Who will represent the United States in the men's 5000m run at the 2024 Paris Olympics?
$5K4 tradersResolved
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Will the winning time in the men's race of the 2023 Chicago Marathon be under 2:04:00?
$4K10 tradersResolved
100%
Who will represent the United States in the women's 1500m run at the Paris 2024 Olympics?
$4K4 tradersResolved
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Will the scheduled Olympics of 2028 happen in 2028?
$4K16 tradersopen
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Will the winning time of the women's race of the 2023 Chicago Women's Marathon be under 2:15?
$3K7 tradersResolved
99%
Will Greenland enter into a Compact of Free Association (COFA) with the United States before 2030?
$2K16 tradersopen
26%
What will Ernie run in the mile?
$2K8 tradersResolved
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Augusto Dembo of Angola is confirmed via genetic screening to be the product of a human-chimpanzee mating.
$2K5 tradersResolved
1%
Will Ruth Chepngetich win the women's race of the Chicago Marathon in 2023?
$1K10 tradersResolved
1%
Who will win the 2024 Prefontaine Classic Bowerman Mile?
$1K4 tradersResolved
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Will Alphabet spin off Waymo by the end of 2026?
$1K10 tradersopen
19%
Will Stanford return to standarized testing requirements (SAT / ACT) for undergraduate admissions in 2024?
$1K3 tradersResolved
4%
Will the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (North Korea) outlast the Republic of Korea (South Korea)?
$1K11 tradersResolved
92%
Will Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan have another child before the end of 2025?
$8746 tradersclosed
1%
Will the United States will have an Asian-American First Lady before they have an Asian-American president?
$78316 tradersopen
40%
Will Strava add scuba and/or free diving to their app?
$6268 tradersclosed
6%
Who will represent the United States in the men's 1500m run at the Paris Olympics?
$6002 tradersResolved
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Will OpenAI abandon discrete GPT releases in favor of continuous updates?
$5977 tradersclosed
4%
Will there be at least 1000 homicides in Chicago in 2023?
$4498 tradersResolved
4%
What will I @wglane run in the San Francisco Tracksmith 5000m on July 17th, 2024?
$3202 tradersResolved
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Will Japanese Total Fertility be below 1.2 by 2030?
$2879 tradersopen
84%
Will Anéantir by Michel Houellebecq be translated into English by the end of 2024?
$1423 tradersResolved
83%
Test?
$00 tradersResolved
50%