Manifold Creator
Vlad
@vlads
Markets by Vlad
Will a Russian IRBM/ICBM strike the Kyiv metropolitan area before June 1, 2026?
$4K29 tradersResolved
1%
Will Dmitry Muratov be dead before 26 May 2026?
$1K17 tradersResolved
2%
Will another Thomas Pynchon novel be published before his death?
$9142 tradersResolved
99%
Russian IRBM targets Ukraine before May 15, 2025
$8659 tradersResolved
2%
Iranian weapon lands in or damages al-Aqsa before 2026?
$8358 tradersResolved
2%
When will the US let Russians talk to AI models?
$6163 tradersopen
—
Year 3Blue1Brown uploads an explainer that is mostly AI-generated?
$4869 tradersopen
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AI-driven tool capable of modifying binary executables per user prompt available by January 1, 2028
$3818 tradersopen
29%