Manifold Creator
Uzay
@uzpg
Markets by Uzay
Will Kaivu, Atticus and I's current project get accepted to ICML 2025
$11K5 tradersResolved
1%
Will I take a gap sem/year in the 2023-24 academic year?
$7K10 tradersResolved
1%
Is the firing of Sam Altman and the current situation at OpenAI mainly a consequence of an internal breakthrough?
$4K32 tradersResolved
6%
Will I write 10 blog posts in 2023?
$3K21 tradersResolved
85%
Will this market have >2k volume by May 1st?
$2K9 tradersResolved
99%
This market resolves YES if its probability is >=50% on may 8th otherwise it resolves NO
$2K18 tradersResolved
49%
By 2026, will I regret learning a bunch of math/physics as opposed to focusing more on AI?
$1K18 tradersResolved
56%
Will I have >2k profit on Manifold by the end of the year
$73510 tradersResolved
10%
Will MM allow you to follow a user so that you get notifications when they create a market by the end of 2022?
$7275 tradersResolved
95%
Will I write a blog post in the next 2 months?
$7239 tradersResolved
11%
Will I have >3k M$ in total value by 2023
$70714 tradersResolved
2%
WIll I work (at some point) at a top AI lab on safety in the next 5 years?
$50812 tradersopen
74%
Will a deepmind model be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
$3899 tradersopen
54%
Will I consider myself considerably fitter, as much as last summer, at the end of the summer?
$38513 tradersResolved
77%
Will I have changed my attitude towards alcohol in 1 year
$3248 tradersResolved
17%
Will I be happy about it if I get tutors this summer?
$26910 tradersResolved
75%
Will I have >2k profit by the end of 2024
$1845 tradersResolved
7%
Will @eleni, @califyn, or I have a paper accepted to the next NeurIPS/ICML/ICLR?
$1244 tradersResolved
84%
Will I get a first paper author in a top ML conference in 2024?
$1057 tradersResolved
42%
Will me and @Nils's project idea get published online in January
$903 tradersResolved
28%
Will I build a cool little GPT project this summer?
$872 tradersResolved
66%
In 10 years will I think my time building knowledge management tools and taking lots of notes on stuff was a waste?
$746 tradersopen
16%
Will OpenAI be the first to succeed at the IMO Grand Challenge or the XTS AI-MO competition?
$736 tradersopen
52%
How many books will I have read in 2022?
$514 tradersResolved
67%
How many followers will I have on Twitter by December? [x / 10]%
$486 tradersResolved
55%
What classes will I take next semester?
$483 tradersResolved
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What classes will I take next semester?
$302 tradersResolved
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What should I do this summer?
$00 tradersopen
—
Recommend me papers!
$00 tradersopen
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