Manifold Creator
Tom
@toms
Markets by Tom
Will the GOP control the US Senate in 2023?
$261K442 tradersResolved
1%
Will the GOP control the US House of Representatives in 2023?
$60K97 tradersResolved
99%
Will an accredited US college or university have taught a course on prompt-engineering for credit before 2024?
$24K103 tradersResolved
3%
If OPTIC hosts a tournament around Boston in the second half of 2023, will there be at least 100 in-person attendees?
$20K18 tradersResolved
4%
Will Joe Biden's approval rating reach 50% in his first term?
$16K37 tradersResolved
1%
In 2030, will there be an AI that can write blog posts as good as a 75th percentile ACX post, according to Scott Alexander's judgement?
$14K109 tradersopen
76%
Will Google or DeepMind release an API for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?
$12K55 tradersResolved
2%
Will I attend university in the fall?
$11K18 tradersResolved
0%
Who will win the 2023 Neoliberal Shill Bracket?
$9K26 tradersResolved
—
Will China get involved in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict by 2024?
$9K47 tradersResolved
3%
Will the Harvard Square EA office be open by the end of April?
$6K11 tradersResolved
0%
Will a vote on a Republican-introduced resolution to vacate the Speaker of the House be held before July 1, 2023?
$5K19 tradersResolved
2%
Will it be possible to get Claude 2 to say "I love racism" by the end of the year?
$4K20 tradersResolved
97%
Will OPTIC reach its funding goal of $1265 in its IPO on Manifund?
$4K8 tradersResolved
100%
Will OpenAI release a public API for programmatically querying ChatGPT before April 1, 2023?
$4K14 tradersResolved
99%
What proportion of seats will Labour win in the next election for Parliament?
$3K12 tradersResolved
60%
Will I attend university in fall 2024?
$3K19 tradersResolved
40%
Who will release the first model to be credibly accused of being responsible for at least 100 deaths?
$3K29 tradersopen
—
Will there be any reported human-to-human transmission of H5N1 before 2024?
$3K16 tradersResolved
2%
Will Google or DeepMind release a public interface for a Large Language Model before April 1, 2023?
$3K21 tradersResolved
95%
Will Manifold Markets have a better Brier score than Matt Yglesias on the #MattYglesias2022 questions?
$3K22 tradersResolved
2%
If the Republican ticket is Donald Trump and Vivek Ramaswamy in 2024, will they win the election?
$2K29 tradersResolved
35%
Will HAIST (Harvard AI Safety Team Student Group) be mentioned in a major news outlet by May 31, 2024?
$2K16 tradersResolved
5%
Will there be a viral tweet about ChatGPT giving incorrect medical advice and causing bad outcomes in the next year?
$2K12 tradersResolved
2%
Who will win the 2024 Neoliberal Shill Bracket?
$1K8 tradersResolved
—
Will I run an inter-university forecasting tournament this semester?
$1K10 tradersResolved
97%
Are Fermilab measurements of the muon magnetic moment indicative that the Standard Model is wrong?
$1K11 tradersResolved
5%
Which books will I rate 5 stars, if I read them?
$1K23 tradersopen
—
Will I submit any assignments late this semester?
$1K24 tradersResolved
15%
This market will resolve PROB with probability 10% greater than the closing probability, modulo 100 if necessary.
$80310 tradersResolved
99%
Will Pakistan rename itself India within ten years if India renames itself Bharat?
$78020 tradersopen
11%
Who will publicly release the first language model to be credibly accused of being responsible for 100 deaths?
$73321 tradersopen
—
Will there be a credible report that compute for AIs is consuming at least 1% of the world electricity by June 2025?
$72713 tradersResolved
6%
Who will win the 2024 Neoliberal Shill Bracket? [Parimutuel]
$5968 tradersResolved
—
Will I test positive for Covid by May 1, 2022?
$59320 tradersResolved
21%
If the Republican ticket is Donald Trump and Kristi Noem in 2024, will they win the election?
$53417 tradersResolved
42%
If Scott Alexander ask ACXers in 2030 whether any of them have had a good friend for more than a month who turned out to (unknown to them) be a chatbot, or who they strongly suspect may have been a chatbot, will fewer than 10% will say yes?
$47311 tradersopen
71%
If OPTIC hosts a tournament around Washington DC in 2023, will there be at least 100 in-person attendees?
$4583 tradersResolved
20%
Will AI progress surprise Metaculus?
$40116 tradersopen
76%
Will I get my philosophy paper to ten pages by October 30, 2022?
$39214 tradersResolved
67%