Manifold Creator
tailcalled
@tailcalled
Markets by tailcalled
Which AI future will we get?
$22K117 tradersopen
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Will I make a market with at least 100 traders this year?
$18K43 tradersResolved
99%
Will I significantly deconvert Eliezer Yudkowsky from Bayesianism by the end of 2025?
$16K53 tradersResolved
1%
Will Manifold Markets have built-in support for reflective latent variables by 2025?
$14K36 tradersResolved
1%
Will "yeet" be the final keyword for throwing exceptions in Rust?
$13K78 tradersopen
4%
If someone commits anti-AI-xrisk terrorism, will AI xrisk worries be generally marginalized afterwards?
$10K99 tradersopen
32%
Will tailcalled think that the Brain-Like AGI alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
$10K20 tradersopen
22%
Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
$8K31 tradersopen
13%
Will I find it impossible to talk on twitter by 2025?
$8K20 tradersResolved
3%
Will Debian ship a driver written in Rust using the Rust for Linux infrastructure by 2025?
$7K49 tradersResolved
4%
Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2033
$7K114 tradersopen
59%
Will an AI winter happen by 2030?
$7K127 tradersopen
25%
Will 1000+ people bet on this question?
$7K44 tradersResolved
2%
Will AI xrisk seem to be handled seriously by the end of 2026?
$6K47 tradersopen
14%
When will the first robot be made that can go into a near-arbitrary kitchen and make a cup of tea?
$5K54 tradersopen
29%
Will Metaculus have built-in support for reflective latent variables by 2025?
$5K17 tradersResolved
3%
If Donald Trump becomes president again in 2024-2028, will he illegally remain commander-in-chief in 2031?
$5K35 tradersopen
10%
Will Manifold Markets be rewritten in HTMX at the end of 2024?
$5K12 tradersResolved
1%
Will tailcalled think that the Infrabayesianism alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
$4K22 tradersopen
10%
Will I find AI to negatively impact my job opportunities as a coder by 2032?
$4K78 tradersopen
91%
If a solid neurological study of trans women gets performed, what will the results most resemble?
$4K60 tradersopen
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Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
$4K22 tradersopen
14%
If a definitive genetic study of race and intelligence gets performed, what will the W/B genetic g difference be?
$4K13 tradersopen
67%
Will I think that the Belief State Geometry research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
$3K24 tradersopen
24%
Will the Time article and the open letter lead to the marginalization of AI safety concerns within AI capabilities?
$3K26 tradersResolved
3%
Will xAI significantly rework their alignment plan by the start of 2026?
$3K20 tradersResolved
7%
Will any American state start a transgender suppression program by 2033?
$3K46 tradersopen
44%
Will I solve the alignment problem in 2024?
$3K20 tradersResolved
4%
Will I find autism (or rather, allism) to be an ideology during 2023?
$3K41 tradersResolved
15%
Will Chromium support first-party Rust code by the end of 2023?
$3K13 tradersResolved
9%
Will I be explaining to people that there are AI algorithms on the way that don't just mimic humans by end of 2024?
$3K21 tradersResolved
8%
Political opinions stock market
$2K41 tradersopen
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Will Time retract or denounce the article they published for Eliezer within two weeks?
$2K10 tradersResolved
1%
Will OpenAI become nothing by 2030?
$2K26 tradersopen
—
Will John Wentworth's Gears of Aging series hold up in 2033?
$2K18 tradersopen
27%
Will patio11 make a blog post about prediction markets by 2025?
$2K21 tradersResolved
37%
Will this market have an odd number of traders by the end of 2024?
$2K17 tradersResolved
50%
Will this market get over 200 traders by the end of 2024?
$1K32 tradersResolved
2%
I will send 50 Mana to the person who has the highest % in this market
$1K15 tradersResolved
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By 2028, will anyone do a terrorist attack against AI capabilities researchers that is plausibly attributable to Yud?
$1K31 tradersopen
11%