Manifold Creator
sortwie
@sortwie
Markets by sortwie
Will my "quantum" portfolio perform better than S&P 500 over the next six months?
$29K48 tradersResolved
99%
Will Nicolás Maduro still be president on the March equinox in 2026?
$14K58 tradersResolved
1%
Will Narendra Modi's political alliance achieve more than 320 seats in the 2024 Indian general elections?
$10K24 tradersResolved
1%
Will a movie or TV series based on a book by Brandon Sanderson be released prior to 2027?
$9K55 tradersopen
1%
Will over 1000 people live permanently outside Earth's atmosphere by 2050?
$9K87 tradersopen
38%
How many predictions did the FT writers get wrong for 2025?
$4K6 tradersResolved
—
Will there be an official Lego model of the Cybertruck before 2035?
$4K38 tradersopen
8%
Will NuScale (SMR) trade at more than $5.00 on January 1, 2024?
$3K8 tradersResolved
2%
Will Neuralink implant its device in five or more patients before the end of 2024?
$3K14 tradersResolved
8%
Will NASA end the current New Horizons Mission?
$3K14 tradersResolved
3%
Who will win this December’s election for mayor of Bucharest?
$2K11 tradersResolved
—
Will Iran reach the 'weapons-grade' uranium enrichment threshold before 2025?
$2K17 tradersResolved
1%
Were Tailei Qi and Zijie Yan engaged in a scientific controversy?
$2K7 tradersResolved
1%
Will the Myanmar junta relinquish power before October 2024?
$2K13 tradersResolved
1%
Will the average age of 2023 Nobel prize recipients be less than 74?
$2K15 tradersResolved
97%
Will the far-right political group hold 94 or more seats in the tenth European Parliament?
$1K12 tradersResolved
2%
Will an AI alignment course be offered at an Ivy League university prior to 2025?
$1K26 tradersResolved
87%
By the year 2030, will it be routine for autonomous robotic systems to perform surgical interventions?
$1K21 tradersopen
18%
Are there two players with the same birthday in the 2023 Rugby World Cup winning team?
$1K10 tradersResolved
12%
Can Chat-GPT be used to describe arbitrary texts in a compressed form?
$1K13 tradersResolved
82%
Will it be possible to run an LLM of GPT-4 (or higher) capability on a portable device by 2027?
$1K9 tradersResolved
99%
Will Romania join 'Air Schengen' before full Schengen?
$9347 tradersResolved
98%
Will FIDE lift restrictions on transgender players by the end of 2027?
$82722 tradersopen
59%
Will OpenAI cross $3.5B in annualized revenue in 2024?
$7438 tradersResolved
96%
Will cocoa prices be lower one year from now?
$72511 tradersResolved
4%
Will Prince William have a fourth child before 2030?
$5799 tradersopen
22%
Will any athlete be stripped of their 2024 Paris Olympics medal, one year on?
$5718 tradersResolved
94%
Will Apple sell a lower-end Apple Vision headset before 2027?
$4929 tradersopen
15%
Will there be a new season of Ahsoka before 2027?
$4906 tradersopen
87%
Does erotic literature account for more than half of published fiction?
$44314 tradersResolved
24%
Will there be more than two different leaders of the WTA rankings (single) in 2024?
$4052 tradersResolved
5%
Will XIAOMI-branded cars be available in the EU by January 2025?
$3977 tradersResolved
18%
Before 2026, will any US state introduce legislation regulating the genetic screening of embryos?
$3878 tradersResolved
10%
Will any existing generative AI unicorn go public by 2027?
$32117 tradersopen
73%
Will Jon Stewart be the official host of The Daily Show for any period in January 2025?
$3075 tradersResolved
88%
How many of the FT writers’ predictions for the world in 2024 will turn out to be correct?
$2775 tradersResolved
69%
Will the next French aircraft carrier be (initially) named after a woman?
$2585 tradersopen
18%
Will there be a blanket amnesty granted to Catalan separatists by July 2024?
$2478 tradersResolved
75%
Will the global prevalence of obesity peak before 2050?
$2469 tradersopen
73%
Will Norway win the 2023 World Women's Handball Championship?
$2038 tradersResolved
67%