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Will the US give out a stimulus check in 2024?
$70K93 tradersResolved
1%
Who are the top 10 AI researchers?
$51K102 tradersResolved
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Top 5 most useful tests for AGI
$46K44 tradersResolved
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Will anyone get o1 to leak its hidden CoT?
$25K121 tradersResolved
96%
Will AI automate GUIs by end of 2024?
$20K111 tradersResolved
19%
Will 5 people say in the comments they didn't know "mana" was a pun?
$17K16 tradersResolved
100%
Will 4chan exist in 2026?
$16K39 tradersResolved
99%
AI beats me in PvP Factorio during December 2025
$13K45 tradersResolved
1%
Funniest AI generated background art on Manifold (add your own)
$11K107 tradersResolved
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Top Chatbot Arena model uses hidden CoT on July 25th, 2025
$11K11 tradersResolved
99%
Will the US give out a stimulus check in 2025?
$10K22 tradersResolved
1%
Someone comments they bought an RTX 3090 for less than $300 before 2026
$9K6 tradersResolved
1%
In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM?
$9K57 tradersResolved
3%
Price of a RTX 3090 falls below $300 during 2025
$8K13 tradersResolved
2%
What will be the cover of Nick Bostrom's new book?
$8K45 tradersResolved
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If another Carrington Event occurred tomorrow, what percent of the US population would still be alive after 6 months?
$7K26 tradersopen
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What will be the world's top energy source in 2030?
$6K49 tradersopen
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Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2026?
$6K40 tradersResolved
3%
Will anyone get o1 to leak its entire hidden CoT?
$6K28 tradersResolved
97%
Will someone be convicted just for making AI porn in the US?
$6K52 tradersopen
82%
Most impressive thing about humans.
$6K33 tradersResolved
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Will 5 users post credible evidence of not being stationary while working before 2025? [hard mode]
$5K17 tradersResolved
4%
Will OpenAI offer a model that updates its weights while running during 2025?
$5K30 tradersResolved
4%
Will Helion provide nuclear fusion power to a data center before end of 2028?
$5K21 tradersopen
9%
Pronouns of most popular AI after 2026
$5K73 tradersopen
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Will I need to type and move the mouse while editing code at the end of 2025?
$5K35 tradersResolved
95%
Will 10 people comment saying they spent money on AI music before 2026?
$5K38 tradersResolved
5%
Will AI correctly see what tabs I have open before 2025?
$4K53 tradersResolved
71%
Will two twitter bots get in an argument with each other before the end of 2025?
$4K28 tradersResolved
87%
Will Bostrom's new book depict a bird on the cover?
$4K24 tradersResolved
3%
Does Manifold like dating apps?
$4K35 tradersResolved
97%
Will chatgpt still answer "why do our bodies sweat" in the first person by end of 2024?
$4K43 tradersResolved
20%
Will the US give out a stimulus check in 2026?
$3K26 tradersopen
22%
Will chatgpt read this tic-tac-toe board correctly before 2025?
$3K22 tradersResolved
35%
Will Bostrom's new book depict Sisyphus on the cover?
$3K23 tradersResolved
3%
Will a company get sued for giving a human a captcha they can't solve?
$3K20 tradersResolved
8%
Will keyboards be used to make most Google searches in 2027?
$3K43 tradersopen
95%
Will 4chan exist in 2028?
$3K27 tradersopen
90%
Will AI be able to reach a human IRS representative before April 2026?
$2K20 tradersResolved
46%
Will an LLM better than gpt3.5 run on my rtx 3090 before 2025?
$2K23 tradersResolved
96%