Manifold Creator

robm

@robm

Markets by robm

Non-pro Apple Vision before 2026?

$7K29 tradersResolved
1%

Will my streak show 0 this week?

$6K16 tradersResolved
4%

Which Manifold users with a 2023 join date will be active in 2025?

$3K11 tradersResolved

Who will lead Superalignment at OpenAI on July 1?

$3K34 tradersResolved

How much Mana will be donated before the pivot?

$1K8 tradersResolved

If Hakeem Jeffries votes for anyone other than himself, who will it be?

$94910 tradersResolved

Firefox Market Share Jan 2026, 3.xx%

$7068 tradersclosed
69%

When will self-improving AI outperform human-developed AI?

$59320 tradersopen
50%

When will I be able to trade on Polymarket?

$4124 tradersopen

[Experimental market, read description] AAPL stock (QRNG Close, 1 week)

$3247 tradersResolved

Will I (robm) agree with the resolution to the 2028 AI generated movie market?

$2297 tradersopen
78%

Will AOH1996 get FDA acceleration?

$2288 tradersResolved
12%

Brave Browser security/privacy scandal by 2030?

$2004 tradersopen
29%

Will Manifold hit the new $10k charitable donation cap in <month>?

$1878 tradersResolved

How many of the delegates needed to win will each Republican candidate receive at the 2024 RNC?

$501 tradersResolved

What will be the top trending Custom GPTs at the end of January?

$101 tradersResolved

Do you follow @scottalexander? How are you betting on the AI movie market?

$031 tradersResolved

Manifold charity contributions by month for 2024, where can I find the data?

$00 tradersopen

Which California lottery game has the highest odds of a $100,000+ prize?

$00 tradersResolved

go bet Ṁ1 on Robert Miles in this market, and I'll pay you Ṁ10

$00 tradersResolved