Manifold Creator
robert
@robert
Markets by robert
Government is shutdown in February 2026?
$45K101 tradersResolved
99%
Will @realDonaldTrump be active on manifold in November?
$26K30 tradersResolved
2%
Large states redistrict before 2026 midterms?
$22K22 tradersopen
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Will Trump demean another President on President's day?
$17K152 tradersResolved
7%
Vuelta Vingegaard-Almeida time gap
$15K8 tradersResolved
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Who will overtake Gemini 2.5 pro when?
$10K21 tradersResolved
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Will Vingegaard dominate La Vuelta?
$10K12 tradersResolved
1%
Someone owns >20 NO shares at close?
$8K18 tradersResolved
99%
Who will be the next Trump Cabinet member to leave?
$8K22 tradersResolved
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This market resolves to the xor of all other markets referencing "Will three different individuals create a market ..."
$6K9 tradersResolved
25%
How many will Gemini 3.0 achieve? [Read description]
$6K15 tradersResolved
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With what probability does the optimal strategy solve this riddle?
$6K15 tradersResolved
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SCOTUS takes up same sex marriage case in 2025-2026 or 2026-2027 docket?
$5K14 tradersopen
2%
Which stages will the winner of the Tour de France win?
$5K13 tradersResolved
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When (relative to the end) will we know when the shutdown ends?
$4K20 tradersResolved
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Will the house pass the funding bill on Monday?
$4K24 tradersResolved
1%
Will Trump or his family benefit financially from US control of Venezuela by end of year?
$4K35 tradersopen
62%
Which user will add the plurality of answers to the market "How many answers will this question have when it closes?"?
$3K8 tradersResolved
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[Short fuse] What will be the 2025 Oxford word of the year?
$3K18 tradersResolved
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Grok 4 in top left of Artificial Analysis' cost to run vs intelligence chart?
$3K16 tradersResolved
1%
Will Trump publicly announce a desire for the US to take over another territory before the end of February?
$2K45 tradersResolved
2%
Safe to travel to Iran by EOY 2032?
$2K7 tradersopen
48%
How many states will Trump claim the midterms were rigged in?
$2K9 tradersopen
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Will Trump golf on Christmas day?
$1K19 tradersResolved
1%
Will vibe coding be a finalist in the 2025 Oxford word of the year?
$1K21 tradersResolved
1%
2025 men's cycling road world champion wins in solo breakaway?
$1K13 tradersResolved
99%
What is Manifold's favorite llm benchmark? [Add answers]
$1K3 tradersResolved
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Will all top 5 scores in 2024 Putnam Competition come from MIT students?
$1K6 tradersResolved
99%
Will I be able to embed a market inside a numerical market by the end of October?
$9754 tradersResolved
99%
At the end of 2025, will Google still display "Gulf of America" when "gulf of mexico" is searched?
$95316 tradersResolved
97%
TikTok's US status unchanged by May 1?
$90510 tradersResolved
99%
Maximum number of digits of shares held equal to mode of shares held among YES holders
$9044 tradersResolved
1%
How many times will X happen in June (ask Y/N questions to determine what X is)
$8702 tradersResolved
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Will Gaza be in the news in 2026 [Google trends]?
$84611 tradersopen
67%
Will Trump sign an executive order in 2025 that dissolves the Department of Education and is not overturned by courts?
$77016 tradersResolved
4%
Vingegaard outsprints Pogacar on any stage of TdF 2025?
$74311 tradersResolved
94%
Maximum amount of time Vingegaard gains on Pogacar on any individual stage of TdF 2025
$6804 tradersResolved
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Will the median number of shares held be prime?
$58519 tradersResolved
66%
Will Manifold hurt the eyes tomorrow?
$52015 tradersResolved
5%
Will the word "based" be less right-leaning at the end of 2025 than it is today? (based on google trends)
$51611 tradersResolved
95%