Manifold Creator
paleink
@paleink
Markets by paleink
Will i create an alpha version of my game before summer solstice?
$6K37 tradersResolved
36%
Will total market cap of cryptocurrency fall below 500 billion $ before 2024?
$5K16 tradersResolved
1%
What can actually be called "final boss for humanity?"
$5K37 tradersResolved
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Will International Space Station be in orbit on January 1, 2030?
$3K44 tradersopen
75%
Will at any point in time before 2024 covid's infection rate per million people in China exceed that of US?
$2K12 tradersResolved
94%
Which company will achieve the "weak AGI"?
$1K15 tradersopen
—
Will an AI agent be able to draw a mid-2024-diffusion-model-quality image in a standard drawing program by 2027?
$93412 tradersopen
51%
Will the first crewed Mars mission result in a loss of at least 1 life or mission abortion before reaching Mars orbit?
$70712 tradersopen
30%
Will a winner of ACX prediction contest (blind mode) be a minmaxer?
$67414 tradersResolved
9%
Will a winner of ACX prediction contest (full mode) be a minmaxer?
$4709 tradersResolved
8%
Will Vladimir Putin do something related to Ukraine war on February 24?
$31410 tradersResolved
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How many starships will be launched before 2030?
$28210 tradersopen
60%
Will the amount of yearly orbital space launches triple again in the next 5 years?
$2523 tradersopen
52%
Will Scott Alexander write an explainer post about cyborgism/"LLM whisperers" before the end of the year?
$474 tradersopen
67%