Manifold Creator
nosuch
@nosuch
Markets by nosuch
Will OpenAI release a super-app combining ChatGPT, Codex, and Atlass apps, before May 1 2026?
$5K33 tradersResolved
8%
A major ML paper demonstrates symbolic-enhanced transformer successor outperforming standard transformers by March 2025
$4K17 tradersResolved
13%
Will there be a reasoning model more powerful than o1-preview, and cheaper and >10x faster than o1-mini, by Nov 12 2025?
$3K35 tradersResolved
7%
By Jan 31 will any U.S.-based corporation have operational control over Venezuelan assets formerly operated by PDVSA?
$9607 tradersResolved
1%
No new experimental evidence for Roger Penrose's Orchestrated Objective Reduction theory by 2025-05-20
$9507 tradersResolved
99%
Apple adds MCP support before June 8, 2026?
$85315 tradersResolved
95%
A new open weights reasoning model w/ <= 13B parameters will be released before Jan 1st 2025
$1374 tradersResolved
65%