Manifold Creator
Nathan Wei
@nathanwei
Markets by Nathan Wei
Who will win the 2026 Fields Medals?
$387K371 tradersopen
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What will happen at IMO 2025?
$70K130 tradersResolved
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Will AI win a gold on IMO before it wins a gold on IOI?
$47K79 tradersResolved
98%
Will the UN declare a famine in Gaza by 2030?
$18K25 tradersResolved
99%
Who will win the 2030 Fields Medals?
$9K35 tradersopen
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Will Iran get a nuclear weapon before the Islamic Republic falls?
$6K33 tradersopen
14%
If Trump announces his candidacy for President in 2024, will it be in an even indexed month? (i.e. February, April, June, etc).
$5K12 tradersResolved
0%
By when will Wikipedia stop considering Gaza a genocide?
$5K78 tradersopen
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How many people with IMO 2024 markets will make USA IMO?
$4K11 tradersResolved
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Will Hannah Fox get 2 problems on each day of IMO 2024?
$3K14 tradersResolved
2%
Will ICJ find Israel in breach of the Genocide Convention?
$3K33 tradersopen
73%
Who will win the 2034 Fields Medals?
$3K7 tradersopen
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Will Musk visit Shifa Hospital in 2023?
$3K16 tradersResolved
2%
Who will be in the Israeli government following the next elections?
$2K27 tradersopen
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Will the ICJ find Russia in breach of the Genocide Convention?
$2K7 tradersopen
32%
Will Israel execute someone by 2030?
$2K17 tradersopen
12%
What will be the first ten countries to do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?
$2K40 tradersopen
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Will BTE be convinced by Hamas command center?
$1K12 tradersResolved
8%
By when will Wikipedia remove Gaza from "list of genocides"?
$73017 tradersopen
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Which of the following countries will have a biobank by Feb 21, 2030?
$5814 tradersopen
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Will Netanyahu make a UN speech by the end of 2023?
$5668 tradersResolved
4%
Will there be another high-profile cancellation a la James Damore or Tim Hunt by EOY?
$4627 tradersResolved
89%
If the ICJ rules Israel is not committing genocide in Gaza, will this appear on Wikipedia's main page within 30 days?
$46113 tradersopen
25%
What will be the first country to do widespread embryo selection for intelligence?
$40816 tradersopen
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Will Israel's GDP/capita pass the USA's by 2070?
$4057 tradersopen
37%
Nathan Cofnas wins his free speech case?
$4014 tradersopen
86%
What will be the outcome of the South Africa vs Israel ICJ case
$3886 tradersopen
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Will the ICJ determine that Russia committed genocide?
$3708 tradersopen
40%
When will food aid into Gaza resume?
$2955 tradersResolved
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Will Mohammed Dahlan return to Gaza by 2024?
$2853 tradersResolved
6%
Will the ICJ overturn the 15-2 precedent in Croatia v Serbia by 2035?
$2815 tradersopen
8%
Israeli invasion of Syria in December 2024 involves 20-year land grab?
$1596 tradersopen
45%
The New York Times will have an article mentioning Herasight by the end of:
$1586 tradersopen
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Will Area C shrink by 2027?
$1579 tradersopen
23%
Will NYT have an update about Shifa being a command center by July?
$1427 tradersResolved
26%
By when will the Wikipedia page "Gaza genocide" be deleted or retitled?
$1329 tradersopen
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Will the EFF be in the next South African government?
$1185 tradersResolved
14%
Will the ICJ determine that Myanmar committed genocide?
$826 tradersopen
45%
Will Mohammed Dahlan return to Gaza by 2025?
$702 tradersResolved
19%
Will the ICJ find Myanmar in breach of the Genocide Convention?
$615 tradersopen
67%