Manifold Creator
Pavrati Jain
@logaems
Markets by Pavrati Jain
Will Atlas stop running fellowships in 2024?
$125K94 tradersResolved
100%
Will I have less than 3 followers at June 22nd?
$34K22 tradersResolved
0%
Will at least 3 people post pictures of their cats in the comments?
$27K36 tradersResolved
100%
Will there be a video explaining "rationalussy" on Youtube before 2024?
$27K51 tradersResolved
98%
Will I reach a 100 day streak?
$17K35 tradersResolved
7%
Michael Knowles' 5 big predictions for 2024
$14K100 tradersResolved
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Will WARP take place in 2024?
$9K9 tradersResolved
99%
Will I be in the top 10 shy brownies?
$6K13 tradersResolved
0%
Will I stay 1st in my league this season?
$6K12 tradersResolved
100%
How many non-adults will attend Manifest?
$5K19 tradersResolved
—
Will at least 8 people post a picture of their cat in the comments?
$5K29 tradersResolved
99%
Will Manifold change the Twitter icon on profiles before 2026?
$5K10 tradersResolved
4%
How many asexuals are there on Manifold?
$5K7 tradersResolved
—
Will I finish at a higher place than Eliezer Yudkowsky?
$4K15 tradersResolved
99%
Will I attend WARP in 2024?
$4K13 tradersResolved
2%
Will I ever be an Atlas fellow?
$4K20 tradersResolved
8%
Will my profile picture still be the Manifold Love thumbnail on Google in May?
$3K7 tradersResolved
2%
Who will win the 2024 Indian general election?
$3K13 tradersResolved
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Will >2 Lost Ones attend SPARC 2024?
$3K14 tradersResolved
92%
Will I have donated a kidney by my 18.5th birthday?
$3K19 tradersResolved
5%
Will ESPR take place in 2024?
$3K7 tradersResolved
99%
Will a demon be summoned at ESPR or PAIR in 2024?
$2K2 tradersResolved
86%
Will I astral project to Manifest?
$2K24 tradersResolved
7%
Will Sercy be a "religious fundie de trans" in 5 years?
$2K7 tradersopen
8%
Will I attend a national math program in November?
$2K10 tradersResolved
99%
Will the reality of DMT worlds be confirmed using prime factorization?
$2K12 tradersopen
3%
Human whole brain emulation before 2100?
$2K19 tradersopen
80%
Will I have regained my voice by Saturday?
$2K15 tradersResolved
44%
Will I manage to sleep more than 7 hours every day for a week?
$2K32 tradersResolved
87%
Will >1 person make a Manifold account as a result of my class presentation heavily promoting it?
$2K41 tradersResolved
58%
Will the Vienna Hypersphere have published a post on Substack or LW before March?
$2K1 tradersResolved
14%
How many people from the (unofficial) "Atlas Fellowship 2023" Discord group will be 2024 Atlas fellows?
$1K6 tradersResolved
—
Will one of the next 10 popes be black?
$1K25 tradersopen
77%
Will the Vienna Hypersphere publish >1 post on Substack or LW before 2025?
$1K4 tradersResolved
25%
Will the Atlas disbanding market ever go under 90%?
$1K4 tradersResolved
100%
Will I stay in the master's league?
$1K7 tradersResolved
1%
Will ASPR be held in 2025?
$1K6 tradersResolved
96%
Does Parvati Jain consider a comment with 0 likes to be "most liked" if it's the only comment?
$1K2 tradersResolved
1%
Will @LoganGraves crash and burn?
$1K5 tradersResolved
1%
Will someone buy a banana for Mana before December?
$1K12 tradersResolved
92%