Manifold Creator
jan
@joanna
Markets by jan
Claude Opus 4.x Release Date
$15K19 tradersResolved
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Which Anthropic co-founders will still be at Anthropic by November 2025?
$10K13 tradersResolved
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Claude Opus 3.x Release Date
$9K11 tradersResolved
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Anthropic acquires Cursor by EOY 2025?
$8K23 tradersResolved
1%
Best Model on AiderBench by end of April
$8K9 tradersResolved
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Best Model on AiderBench by end of July
$7K5 tradersResolved
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Will the unemployment rate rise in August 2024?
$5K13 tradersResolved
4%
Chungin 'Roy' Lee on 2026 Forbes 30 Under 30 list?
$4K7 tradersResolved
5%
Best Model on AiderBench by end of May
$4K14 tradersResolved
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Will an AI system be reported to have independently gained unauthorized access to another computer system before 2026?
$3K21 tradersResolved
12%
Will there be another benchmark/test after "Humanity's Last Exam"?
$3K16 tradersopen
90%
When will someone be able to jailbreak ALL 8 levels of Anthropic's Constitutional Classifier?
$3K5 tradersResolved
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Best Model on AiderBench by end of June
$2K6 tradersResolved
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Best Model on AiderBench by end of August
$1K7 tradersResolved
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China produces 3nm chips before 2027?
$78011 tradersopen
36%
[SHORT FUSE] Will Harris Campaign on Price Controls for Groceries?
$6449 tradersResolved
8%
Will Character AI be found responsible for teenager's suicide?
$63516 tradersopen
10%
Will I use Manifold Markets in a Paper for a Class on Industrial Organization?
$5908 tradersResolved
54%
Is Red Panda Grok's new image model?
$5424 tradersResolved
2%
What will be the NYT print headline for tomorrow (10/13)?
$1675 tradersResolved
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What will be the NYT print headline for tomorrow (10/16)?
$1253 tradersResolved
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NYT print headline for tomorrow (10/18)
$1054 tradersResolved
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What will be the NYT print headline for tomorrow (10/14)?
$1003 tradersResolved
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What will be the NYT print headline for tomorrow (10/12)?
$803 tradersResolved
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What will be the NYT print headline for tomorrow (10/15)?
$752 tradersResolved
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NYT print headline for tomorrow (10/17)
$553 tradersResolved
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Will my LLM bot place within the top 3 at the end of the Metaculus LLM bot forecasting tournament?
$554 tradersResolved
61%
NYT print headline for tomorrow (10/19)
$261 tradersResolved
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What will be the NYT Print Headline tomorrow (10/11)?
$101 tradersResolved
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