Manifold Creator
jim
@jim
Markets by jim
Will Biden finish his term?
$6.9M2,455 tradersResolved
99%
Trump to pass Harris?
$343K478 tradersResolved
91%
Is "gpt2-chatbot" GPT-4's Successor?
$330K309 tradersResolved
11%
Nate Silver's model to favour Harris 2 weeks from now?
$252K468 tradersResolved
—
Harris to pass Trump?
$216K212 tradersResolved
0%
Gemini 3.0 today?
$213K9 tradersResolved
1%
Biden formally nominated in July?
$190K209 tradersResolved
1%
Will GOOG close above $250 today?
$146K14 tradersResolved
1%
Will Sora be the #1 App on October 31?
$140K381 tradersResolved
1%
Will TSLA drop below $200 a share in 2025?
$128K264 tradersResolved
1%
Will Sam Altman's next Tweet be an announcement of GPT-5?
$124K49 tradersResolved
0%
Will DeepSeek's R1 top the Chatbot Arena leaderboard?
$120K18 tradersResolved
0%
What will be true of season 1 of the new Harry Potter reboot series?
$102K276 tradersopen
—
Will Grok 3 Top the Chatbot Leaderboard?
$101K69 tradersResolved
99%
Will fast take-off happen this year?
$100K59 tradersResolved
1%
Will Anthropic release Claude 4 this week?
$97K262 tradersResolved
100%
Elon Musk richest person in the world on September 30
$91K228 tradersResolved
98%
Gemini 3 by EOY?
$90K80 tradersResolved
99%
Will Manifold ban @stardust by end of month?
$85K64 tradersResolved
99%
Will GOOG close above $230 today?
$79K26 tradersResolved
99%
Trump to pass Harris?
$77K179 tradersResolved
83%
Will Trump take back the Panama Canal?
$77K288 tradersopen
14%
Will the LK-99 room temp, ambient pressure superconductivity pre-print replicate before 2026?
$75K42 tradersResolved
1%
Will GPT-4.5 rank above Grok 3 on Chatbot Arena?
$72K118 tradersResolved
0%
Will the S&P 500 Pass 100,000 by EOY 2026?
$70K26 tradersopen
1%
This market has a 1/1000 chance of resolving YES each day.
$65K61 tradersopen
99%
Harris to pass Trump?
$61K245 tradersResolved
99%
AI solves Millenium Prize Problem in 2025?
$55K73 tradersResolved
1%
Will Sam Altman Tweet again this month?
$54K13 tradersResolved
100%
Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?
$53K186 tradersResolved
97%
Trump's first international trip
$53K251 tradersResolved
—
Tomorrowland Cancelled?
$52K76 tradersResolved
0%
Will Kamala Harris give an interview by end of month?
$49K194 tradersResolved
100%
OpenAI to become a for-profit by EOY? (read description)
$48K120 tradersResolved
3%
At Manifest 2024 will @jim convince Eliezer Yudkowsky that an AI moratorium would be a bad idea?
$46K33 tradersResolved
3%
will Humanity's Last Exam fall this month? (score >80%)
$45K24 tradersResolved
1%
Will we get a new Gemini, Claude, GPT, and Grok model this week?
$44K186 tradersResolved
1%
Which of xAI, Anthropic, and OpenAI will IPO first?
$42K146 tradersopen
—
Which thresholds will the S&P 500 hit in 2025?
$41K45 tradersResolved
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Will Trump reach 50% before Harris?
$39K81 tradersResolved
99%