Manifold Creator
James Dillard
@jdilla
Markets by James Dillard
Will AI wipe out humanity before the year 2100
$4.2M814 tradersopen
14%
Who will win the 2026 NBA Championship?
$197K266 tradersopen
—
Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.
$141K159 tradersopen
82%
Will the AP call the 2024 election on election night?
$37K143 tradersResolved
1%
GPT-5 class models are real, will be significantly better than GPT-4, and are coming by the end of the year.
$35K77 tradersResolved
45%
Who will be the next Attorney General
$30K51 tradersResolved
—
Will Fox News call the 2024 election on election night?
$26K117 tradersResolved
99%
Which NBA team will Kevin Durant be on at the start of next season (2025-2026)
$15K18 tradersResolved
—
Will Nate Silver call the 2024 election on election night?
$13K79 tradersResolved
33%
How many games will the Cleveland Cavaliers win to start the season?
$12K8 tradersResolved
—
Will Stripe / Shopify merge by the end of 2025
$11K11 tradersResolved
1%
Will China blockade Taiwan between the US election and the next Presidential inauguration?
$10K35 tradersResolved
1%
Will the National Environmental Protection Act be substantially reformed by the end of 2025.
$9K39 tradersResolved
82%
There will be a Taylor Swift backlash by the end of 2025
$8K27 tradersResolved
4%
By the end of the year 2027, Apple will acquire Anthropic and Cursor
$8K25 tradersopen
4%
Will Bill Belichick win a NCAA championship as UNC head coach
$8K15 tradersopen
2%
Which team will Giannis be on at the end of the 2024-25 NBA season
$7K10 tradersResolved
—
Which NBA team will be the first to 10 wins?
$7K16 tradersResolved
—
Will Bill Belichick coach more than 10 football games at UNC?
$6K9 tradersResolved
98%
Will Twitter/X be shutdown permanently by the end of 2027
$6K46 tradersopen
5%
How many NBA championships will Jason Tatum win during his career?
$5K16 tradersopen
—
Will Cuba still be a communist country on the following dates
$5K52 tradersopen
—
Will the Matt Levine / SBF Odd Lots Episode get quoted during the SBF trial?
$5K13 tradersResolved
2%
Who will be the next President to die?
$4K89 tradersopen
—
Will LoveFrom + OpenAI ship a consumer product in 2025
$4K7 tradersResolved
5%
Will Kamala Harris be on the ballot for another major election again after this election?
$3K26 tradersopen
44%
When will a Republican next be elected President of the United States
$3K12 tradersopen
—
Who will win the 2027 NBA Championship?
$3K22 tradersopen
—
Will the Los Angeles Dodgers have a winning record at the end of April?
$3K10 tradersResolved
99%
Will Nate Cohn call the 2024 election on election night?
$3K14 tradersResolved
28%
Will the New York Yankees have a winning record at the end of April?
$3K12 tradersResolved
99%
Will the AP call the 2024 election on election night?
$3K58 tradersResolved
11%
Will we see someone live to 120 years old by 2030?
$3K27 tradersopen
21%
Will LeBron James win another NBA championship as a player?
$3K18 tradersopen
6%
Will China still be a communist country on the following dates
$3K20 tradersopen
—
How many presidential candidates in the 2028 presidential election will have facial hair?
$2K9 tradersopen
—
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates have a winning record at the end of April?
$2K13 tradersResolved
1%
Will we reach AGI before Stripe goes public?
$2K15 tradersopen
6%
Will the US quits rate be below 2.5% at the end of 2022
$2K22 tradersResolved
18%
Was Shohei Otani involved in his ex-interpreter’s gambling?
$2K18 tradersResolved
3%