Manifold Creator
Julian
@jbs
Markets by Julian
Will there be large language models with context lengths greater than 500k by the end of 2025?
$2K13 tradersResolved
98%
Will nightwish release a new album before the end of 2025?
$1K6 tradersResolved
99%
Will Argentina's poverty rate rise above 70% before the end of Javier Milei's current term?
$1K11 tradersopen
2%
Will Boeing have another safety fiasco in 2024?
$4497 tradersResolved
86%
Will smartphones be substantially replaced with voice LLM interfaces by 2030?
$34614 tradersopen
19%
Will there be a junior-level coding assistant that can do unguided meaningful code contributions by 2028?
$33715 tradersopen
86%
Will Canada's ban on foreigners purchasing homes extend past 2027?
$1509 tradersopen
70%
Will there be generally available consumer wearables that perform multiple continuous blood tests by 2050?
$1444 tradersopen
82%
Will LLM based systems have debugging ability comparable to a human by 2030?
$987 tradersopen
68%