Manifold Creator
jacobk
@jacobk
Markets by jacobk
Will AI safety (broadly defined) be a partisan issue in US politics before 2024?
$11K35 tradersResolved
1%
Will AGI Ruin: A List of Lethalities have over 1,000 LessWrong upvotes before 2024?
$9K20 tradersResolved
0%
Will Scott Alexander write a substantial blog post about shard theory before June?
$8K15 tradersResolved
0%
Will the US government enact legislation before 2026 that substantially slows US AI progress?
$7K70 tradersResolved
3%
Will Anthropic and OpenAI collaborate substantially on a research paper before 2025?
$5K42 tradersResolved
7%
Will Meta AI start an AGI alignment team before 2026?
$5K27 tradersResolved
9%
Will Xi Jinping publicly express concern about AI extinction risk before 2026?
$5K39 tradersResolved
7%
Will Rishi Sunak publicly express concern about AI extinction risk before 2024?
$2K11 tradersResolved
96%
Will @anthrupad reach over 1,000 Twitter followers before March?
$1K7 tradersResolved
98%
Will DeepMind publish their alignment plan before 2024?
$78718 tradersResolved
24%
Will Frank Ocean release a new studio album before 2026?
$55814 tradersResolved
6%
Will LeBron James publicly express concern about AI extinction risk before 2024?
$51810 tradersResolved
5%
If an AI system kills >1B people, will it satisfy completeness?
$443 tradersopen
35%